考虑路网动态性的危险品运输风险评估方法研究  

On Risk Assessment Methods for Hazardous Goods Transportation Considering Road Network Dynamics

作　　者：崔汗星 赵启兰[1] 宋光 郭俊杰 Cui Han-xing;Zhao Qi-lan;Song Guang;Guo Jun-Jie(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;Beijing Center for Industrial Security and Development Research,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学北京产业安全与发展研究基地,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期63-74,共12页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：城市路网交通流量的动态特性使得城市危险品运输风险评估成为一个复杂的系统性问题。危险品道路运输风险评估应充分考虑城市路网的动态特征,以确保风险评估结果的科学性。本文基于期望风险的评估框架,考虑城市交通路网的动态变化特征和车辆行驶速度变化,将危险品运输视为一个风险随着时间在各路段逐步累积的过程,进而构建动态风险评估方法。研究结果表明:基于动态路网特性提出的城市危险品运输风险评估方法,能够较为精准地评估危险品车辆在动态路网中的风险水平;车辆行驶速度对危险品运输的风险水平影响显著。因此,企业可利用动态风险评估方法优化运输路线,相关管理部门可参考该方法制定更科学、有效的运输策略,提高运输安全的精准化管理水平。The dynamic characteristics of traffic flow in urban road networks make the risk assessment of hazardous goods transportation in cities a complex systemic issue.When conducting a risk assessment of road transportation of hazardous goods,the dynamic characteristics of urban road networks should be fully considered to ensure the scientific validity of the results.Based on the expected-risk assessment frame‐work,this paper takes into account the dynamic change characteristics of the urban traffic road network and the variation in vehicle driving speeds,and treats the transportation of hazardous goods as a process in which risks gradually accumulate over time on each road section.Consequently,a dynamic risk assess‐ment method is proposed.The research results indicate that the dynamic road network-based method pro‐posed in this paper can evaluate more accurately the risk levels of hazardous goods transportation within dy‐namic road networks,with vehicle speed significantly impacting the risk levels of hazardous goods trans‐portation.Therefore,it is advised that enterprises can utilize the dynamic risk assessment method to opti‐mize transportation routes,and relevant management departments may refer to this method to formulate more scientific and effective transportation regulations,thereby enhancing the precision management level of transportation safety.

关 键 词：危险品运输 动态路网 风险评估 车辆行驶速度 

分 类 号：F252.1[经济管理—国民经济] U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]