基于威布尔分布的医疗设备预测性维护方法研究  

Research on predictive maintenance of medical equipment based on Weibull distribution

作　　者：杨柳青 吴明伟 苏立楠 许励治 廖鑫 俞小毛 李强[1] YANG Liuqing;WU Mingwei;SU Linan;XU Lizhi;LIAO Xin;YU Xiaomao;LI Qiang(Beijing Tsinghua Changgung Hospital,Beijing 102218,China;Zhuhai People’s Hospital(ZhuHai Clinical Medical College of Jinan University))

机构地区：[1]清华大学附属北京清华长庚医院,北京102218 [2]珠海市人民医院(暨南大学珠海临床医学院)

出　　处：《中国数字医学》2025年第4期115-120,共6页China Digital Medicine

基　　金：清华大学智慧医疗研究院资助项目——医院信息化支撑体系中若干智慧管理措施研究(2022THUIIH004)。

摘　　要：目的:提出一种医院医疗设备故障记录数据驱动的设备故障预测性维护方法,以优化设备管理策略。方法:收集某医院医疗设备有效故障记录并进行数据清洗,使用威布尔分布(Weibull Distribution)对各设备故障间隔数据进行建模,以极大似然法进行模型参数拟合;随后使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)检验筛选出符合真实分布的模型;最后,基于各设备故障间隔分布模型计算得出各设备的平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)和一段时间内的故障概率。结果:建立包括各设备故障概率等特征的设备故障预测动态数据库。截至2023年底,该医院所有医疗设备中,共99.63%的故障间隔时间符合威布尔分布。结论:基于威布尔分布构建的模型可以有效反映各医疗设备故障间隔分布特征,对制订合理的医疗设备预测性维护策略具有重要参考意义。Objective To propose a data-driven predictive maintenance method for hospital medical equipment failure records,so as to optimize equipment management strategies.Methods Effective fault records of medical equipment in a hospital were collected and cleaned.Weibull distribution was used to model the fault interval data of each equipment,and the Maximum Likelihood Estimate method was used to fit the model parameters.The Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test was then employed to screen out models that fit the actual distribution.Finally,the Mean Time Between Failures(MTBF)and the failure probability of each device were calculated based on the failure interval distribution model.Results A dynamic database for equipment failure prediction was established,which included features such as failure probabilities of each device.By the end of 2023,99.63%of all medical equipment in the hospital had failure intervals consistent with the Weibull distributions.Conclusion The model based on Weibull distribution can effectively reflect the distribution characteristics of failure interval of each medical equipment,and are of great significance for making reasonable predictive maintenance strategies for medical equipment.

关 键 词：威布尔分布 K-S检验 MTBF 预测性维护 医疗设备 

分 类 号：R197.39[医药卫生—卫生事业管理] R318.6[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]