基于弱信号感知的颠覆性技术早期识别特征研究进展  

Advances in Early Recognition Characterization of Disruptive Technologies Based on Weak Signal Sensing

作　　者：王政媛 靳军宝 郑玉荣 白光祖 吴新年 蔡鑫 Wang Zhengyuan;Jin Junbao;Zheng Yurong;Bai Guangzu;Wu Xinnian;Cai Xin(Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Gansu Lanzhou 730000;Department of Information Resources Management,School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing and Intelligent Decision,Gansu Province,Gansu Lanzhou 730000)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院信息资源管理系,北京100190 [3]甘肃省知识计算与决策智能重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2025年第4期174-181,201,共9页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“面向颠覆性技术早期识别的弱信号监测体系设计与应用研究”(项目编号:22BTQ066);2023年度中国科学院“西部之光”青年学者基金项目“西北战略金属矿产资源高值化利用突破性技术路线图研究”的成果。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]颠覆性技术能够改变现有技术格局,可能创造一个新行业或者改变现存行业,世界主要国家均对颠覆性技术进行布局研究。但由于颠覆性技术的不确定性和复杂性,导致其识别难度很大,特别是在早期识别阶段更具挑战。因此,对颠覆性技术早期识别方法进行系统梳理至关重要。[方法/过程]通过文献综述方法对颠覆性技术早期识别特征相关的103篇文献进行系统梳理,从中提取出早期识别特征,并对相应特征的测度方法进行了总结。[结果/结论]通过分析总结,最终归纳出4个识别视角,10个早期识别特征以及对应计算方法,其中排名前三位的特征依次为新颖性、不确定性、前沿性;研究发现在探讨基于弱信号感知的颠覆性技术的本质特征时,需关注弱信号与颠覆性技术特性的结合;现有识别指标更多关注热点监测而非早期识别;当前的识别特征指标在挖掘和分析弱信号方面存在不足。[Purpose/significance]Disruptive technologies can change the existing technological landscape,which may create a new industry or change the existing industry,and major countries in the world are laying out research on disruptive technologies.However,due to the uncertainty and complexity of disruptive technologies,it is difficult to identify them,especially in the early stage,therefore,it is crucial to systematically sort out the early identification methods of disruptive technologies.[Method/process]In this paper,through the method of literature review,103 literatures related to the early identification features of disruptive technologies are systematically sorted out,and then the early identification features are extracted from them,and the measurement methods of the corresponding features are summarised.[Result/conclusion]Through the analysis and summary,4 identification perspectives,10 early identification features and the corresponding calculation methods are finally summarised,of which the top three features are novelty,uncertainty,and cutting-edge in order;it is found that when exploring the essential features of disruptive technologies based on weak signal perception,the combination of weak signals and disruptive technology characteristics needs to be paid attention to;the existing identification indexes pay more attention to the hotspot monitoring instead of early identification;the current identification features focus on hot spot monitoring instead of early identification;and the current identification features have been used in a variety of ways rather than early identification;the current identification feature indicators are insufficient in mining and analysing weak signals.

关 键 词：颠覆性技术 弱信号感知 早期识别 技术特征 研究进展 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]