新发展阶段江苏竞技体育与群众体育协同发展的动力机制研究  

Research on the Dynamic Mechanism of the Coordinated Development between Competitive Sports and Mass Sports in Jiangsu Province in the New Development Stage

作　　者：丁永亮[1] 孙国友[1] 刘莉 DING Yongliang;SUN Guoyou;LIU Li(Nanjing Sports Institute,Nanjing 210014,China)

机构地区：[1]南京体育学院,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《南京体育学院学报》2025年第2期1-9,F0002,共10页Journal of Nanjing Sports Institute

基　　金：2023年度江苏省社会科学基金项目:新发展阶段江苏群众体育与竞技体育全面协同发展机制研究(23TYD005)。

摘　　要：基于系统动力学视角,构建“政策—市场—社会—技术”(PMST)四维驱动模型,揭示江苏省竞技体育与群众体育协同发展的动力机制。通过2015—2024年13个地级市面板数据,采用耦合协调度模型与空间杜宾模型(SDM)进行实证分析,发现:(1)政策驱动(β=0.23,P<0.01)与技术驱动(β=0.29,P<0.05)对协同度影响显著;(2)市场机制在苏南地区弹性系数达0.56,但苏北不显著,反映区域经济水平的调节效应;(3)智慧体育设施渗透率存在倒U形阈值(65%),超过后抑制苏北协同发展。典型案例验证表明,苏州“运河体育公园”模式通过PPP机制实现资源双向流动,南京区块链技术应用使纠纷率下降62%。基于此,提出优化政策工具组合、深化市场化改革等针对性政策建议,为推动江苏体育事业高质量协同发展提供理论与实践参考。From the perspective of system dynamics,this study constructs a four-dimensional driving model of“policy-market-society-technology”(PMST)to reveal the dynamic mechanism of the coordinated development between competitive sports and mass sports in Jiangsu Province.Based on the panel data of 13 prefecture-level cities from 2015 to 2024,an empirical analysis is conducted using the coupling coordination degree model and the Spatial Durbin Model(SDM).The findings are as follows:(1)Policy-driven(β=0.23,P<0.01)and technology-driven(β=0.29,P<0.05)have significant impacts on the degree of coordination.(2)The elasticity coefficient of the market mechanism in southern Jiangsu reaches 0.56,while it is not significant in northern Jiangsu,reflecting the moderating effect of the regional economic level.(3)There is an inverted U-shaped threshold(65%)for the penetration rate of smart sports facilities.When it exceeds this threshold,it inhibits the coordinated development in northern Jiangsu.The verification of typical cases shows that the“canal sports park”model in Suzhou realizes two-way resource flow through the PPP mechanism,and the application of blockchain technology in Nanjing reduces the dispute rate by 62%.Based on this,targeted policy recommendations such as optimizing the combination of policy tools and deepening market-oriented reforms are put forward to provide theoretical and practical references for promoting the high-quality coordinated development of Jiangsu's sports industry.

关 键 词：协同发展 动力机制 四维驱动模型 耦合协调度 

分 类 号：G812.7[文化科学—体育学]