考虑活动风险重叠的多项目关键链双层协同监控  

Two-Layer Cooperative Monitoring of Multi-Project Critical Chain Considering Activity Risk Overlap

作　　者：万丹 WAN Dan(Nanchang University,Nanchang,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌市330031

出　　处：《管理学报》2025年第3期577-584,共8页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金资助项目(24GL28);江西省高校人文社会科学研究资助项目(GL23211);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72364025)。

摘　　要：为了提高多项目综合绩效,提出一种考虑活动风险重叠的多项目关键链双层协同监控方法。此方法考虑活动风险重叠状态下的缓冲吸收情况,根据活动风险暴露度确定项目缓冲的可转移量和项目层的预留缓冲量,结合风险聚合原理和项目风险特点确定系统层的能力约束缓冲量,构建多项目“能力约束缓冲-项目缓冲”双层协同的混合监控体系。实验表明,与现有方法相比,此方法考虑了活动风险重叠特性对不同层级的缓冲进行监控,在保证项目完工概率的同时减少系统缓冲量浪费,缩短系统关键链整体工期,提高了多项目缓冲管理效率。In order to improve the comprehensive performance of multiple projects,this study proposed a two-layer cooperative monitoring method for multi-project critical chain considering the overlap of activity risks.The proposed method analyzes the buffer absorption under the overlapping state of activity risks,determines the transferable amount of project buffers and the reserved buffer amount at the project level according to the activity risk exposure,and determines the capacity constraint buffer amount at the system level by combining the risk aggregation principle and project risk characteristics.Then,a hybrid monitoring system of multi-project“capacity constraint buffering-project buffering”is constructed.Experiments show that,compared with the existing methods,the proposed method,which considers the overlap of activity risks to coordinate the monitoring of different buffers,can ensure the completion probability of the project,reduce the waste of system buffers,shorten the overall construction period of the system key chain,and improve the efficiency of multi-project buffer management.

关 键 词：关键链 多项目管理 风险重叠 缓冲协同监控 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]