“双碳”背景下内蒙古自治区电力消费发展趋势研究  

Research on Development Trend of Electricity Consumption in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region under the Background of‘Dual Carbon’Goals

作　　者：杨雪[1] 周梦璇 孙秋月 Yang Xue;Zhou Mengxuan;Sun Qiuyue(Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou Inner Mongolia 014010;Baotou Power Supply Branch,Inner Mongolia Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Baotou Inner Mongolia 014030)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学,内蒙古包头014010 [2]内蒙古电力有限责任公司包头供电分公司,内蒙古包头014030

出　　处：《中外能源》2025年第4期102-108,共7页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：内蒙古作为能源大省,研究其电力消费特征及未来发展趋势,对实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。影响内蒙古电力消费的主要因素有人口总量、规模以上工业企业数量、GDP增速、“双碳”政策效应。以内蒙古2005~2023年数据为分析对象,建立电力消费与各项影响因素的多元回归模型,并对2026~2040年内蒙古电力消费发展趋势进行预测。研究表明,“双碳”政策效应对各类电力消费均存在显著影响,规模以上工业企业数量是影响内蒙古电力消费的重要因素,而人口数量对电力消费的促进作用不明显。内蒙古电力消费总量及城乡居民生活用电、工业用电量、第三产业用电在未来均呈不断增长态势,其中在上升趋势中起主力作用的是工业用电和第三产业用电。为满足未来日益上涨的电力消费需求,实现碳达峰目标,内蒙古应继续推进能源结构转型,优化煤炭开发布局,加大风光发电投资力度,构建以新能源为主体的生产体系和新型电力系统,同时要全面推动高耗能行业的节能改造。Inner Mongolia is a province rich in energy resources,so the research on its electricity consumption characteristics and future development trend is of great significance for achieving the‘dual carbon’goals.The main factors affecting the electricity consumption in Inner Mongolia include the total population,the number of industrial enterprises above designated size,the GDP growth rate,and the effect of‘dual carbon’policy.Taking the data of Inner Mongolia from 2005 to 2023 as the analysis object,a multiple regression model of electricity consumption and various influencing factors is established,and the development trend of electricity consumption in Inner Mongolia from 2026 to 2040 is predicted.The research shows that the effect of‘dual carbon’policy has a significant impact on all kinds of electricity consumption,the number of industrial enterprises above designated size is an important factor affecting the electricity consumption in Inner Mongolia,and the population has no obvious role in promoting electricity consumption.Inner Mongolia's total electricity consumption,household electricity consumption of urban and rural residents,industrial electricity consumption,and electricity consumption in the tertiary industry will continue to increase in the future,among which the industrial electricity consumption and the electricity consumption in the tertiary industry play a major role in the rising trend.In order to meet the increasing demand for electricity consumption in the future and achieve the goal of carbon peaking,Inner Mongolia should continue to promote the transformation of energy structure,optimize the layout of coal development,increase the investment in wind and PV power generation,build a production system with new energy as the main body and a new power system,and comprehensively promote the energy-saving transformation of high-energy-consuming industries.

关 键 词：电力消费 政策效应 人口数量 工业用电 第三产业用电 新能源 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]