SSPs-RCPs情景下中国土地利用变化模拟及其对碳储量的影响  

Simulation of Land Use Cover Change in China and Its Impact on Carbon Storage Under Different SSPs-RCPs Scenarios

作　　者：何利杰 黄炉斌 周志高 张子睿 黄慧 HE Lijie;HUANG Lubin;ZHOU Zhigao;ZHANG Zirui;HUANG Hui(College of Public Administration,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Low Carbon Economics,Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan 430205,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学公共管理学院,武汉430070 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)区域生态过程与环境演变湖北省重点实验室,武汉430074 [3]湖北经济学院低碳经济学院,武汉430205

出　　处：《遥感信息》2025年第1期60-70,共11页Remote Sensing Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(42201031);中央高校基本科研业务费(2662021GGQD002);湖北省自然科学基金(2022CFB754);区域生态过程与环境演变湖北省重点实验室开放基金(REEC-OF-202301)。

摘　　要：土地利用变化是生态系统碳储量变化的主要驱动因素,厘清土地覆盖变化对碳储量的影响,对于实现国家“双碳”战略目标具有重要意义。鉴于此,文章利用多源遥感数据与社会统计数据,基于PLUS模型与InVEST模型,从全国尺度模拟未来不同SSPs-RCPs情景下土地利用状况,并分析其对生态系统碳储量影响。研究结果表明:1)2040年不同SSPs-RCPs情景下,建设用地扩张一直占据主导地位;除SSP3-RCP7.0情景外,耕地呈现持续减少趋势;除SSP1-RCP2.6情景外,林地呈现持续减少趋势;2)相比于2020年,2040年中国不同SSPs-RCPs情景下的碳储量均呈现下降趋势,降幅最大的是SSP5-RCP8.5情景,减少了826.89 Mt,造成了188.83×10^(4)万美元的经济损失,降幅最小的是SSP1-RCP2.6情景,减少了374.58 Mt,造成了14.83×10^(4)万美元的经济损失;3)2040年不同SSPs-RCPs情景下,未利用地向草地的转换是碳储量增加的主导因素,由此增加了875.52 Mt的碳储量,并获得了208.14×10^(4)万美元的经济价值;而耕地、草地向建设用地的转换是碳储量价值损失的主导因素,由此减少了2165.70 Mt的碳储量,并造成了514.87×10^(4)万美元的经济损失。Land use cover change is the main driving factor for changes in ecosystem carbon storage.Clarifying the impact of land use cover change on carbon storage is of great significance for achieving the national“dual carbon”strategy goal.In view of this,this study utilized multi-source remote sensing data and social statistical data.Based on the PLUS model and InVEST model,this paper simulated the land use status under different SSPs RCPs scenarios at the national scale.And it analyzed their impact on ecosystem carbon storage.The research results indicated that,1)In 2040,under different SSPs RCPs scenarios,the expansion of construction land had always been dominant;except for the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario,arable land showed a continuous decreasing trend.Except for the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario,forest land showed a continuous decreasing trend.2)Compared to 2020,the carbon storage in China under different SSPs RCPs scenarios showed a decreasing trend in 2040.The largest decrease was in the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario,which reduced 826.89 Mt and caused an economic loss of 18.883 billion US dollars.The smallest decrease was in the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario,which reduced 374.58 Mt and caused an economic loss of 14.83 billion US dollars.3)In different SSPs RCPs scenarios in 2040,the conversion of unused land to grassland was the dominant factor in increasing carbon storage,resulting in an increase of 875.52 Mt in carbon storage and an economic value of 20.814 billion US dollars.The conversion of arable land and grassland to construction land were the dominant factors in the loss of carbon storage value,resulting in a reduction of 2165.70 Mt of carbon storage and an economic loss of 51.487 billion US dollars.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳储量 碳储量价值 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 

分 类 号：P94[天文地球—自然地理学]