农业绿色转型中国耕地系统韧性时空演化特征及其影响因素  

Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing mechanism of resilience of China′s cultivated land system under agricultural green transformation

作　　者：吕添贵 陈安莹 付舒斐 赵巧 梁慧 LÜTiangui;CHEN Anying;FU Shufei;ZHAO Qiao;LIANG Hui(School of Public Finance and Public Administration,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Applied Economics(School of Digital Economics),Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院,南昌330013 [2]江西财经大学应用经济学院(数字经济学院),南昌330013

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第6期2891-2904,共14页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42261049);江西省自然科学基金项目(20232BAB203061);江西省2024年度研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2024-S365)。

摘　　要：科学测度农业绿色转型背景下耕地系统韧性时空演化特征及其影响因素,对保障区域耕地绿色生产的持续稳定提供参考。基于2007—2022年省域面板数据,构建农业绿色转型下中国耕地系统韧性多指标评价体系,采用熵值法和探索性空间数据分析揭示中国耕地系统韧性时空演化特征,运用地理探测器解构耕地系统韧性区域差异的影响因素。结果表明:(1)全国耕地系统韧性水平由2007年0.2158波动增加至2022年0.5592,年均增值3.83%,呈阶梯型增长;(2)全国耕地系统韧性呈现出“西北部—东北部”双区放射空间形态,其格局由分散发展到聚拢;(3)轮作休耕规模和地均农药施用量等生态韧性结构对耕地系统韧性提升具有显著正向效应,而绿色农业合作社规模、农用水泵建设水平对全国耕地系统韧性影响则相对较弱;(4)轮作休耕规模与粮食单位面积产量共同作用对耕地系统韧性解释力最明显。To scientifically measure the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of cultivated land system resilience within the context of agricultural green transformation,providing insights to ensure the sustainable and stable green production of regional cultivated land.Utilizing provincial panel data from 2007 to 2022,this study developed a multi-index evaluation framework to assess the resilience of China′s cultivated land system under the agricultural green transformation.The Entropy method and exploratory spatial data analysis were applied to elucidate the spatio-temporal evolution of China′s cultivated land system′s resilience,while geographic detectors were employed to dissect the factors influencing regional disparities in this resilience.The results are as follows:1)The resilience level of the national cultivated land system increased from 0.2158 in 2007 to 0.5592 in 2022,marking an average annual increase of 3.83%,indicative of a progressive enhancement;2)The resilience of the national cultivated land system presents a′northwest-northeast′dual-zone radiation spatial pattern,and its pattern develops from dispersion to agglomeration;3)Infrastructure elements like agricultural water pumps and drainage machinery significantly enhance cultivated land resilience,whereas factors such as pesticide use and rural population density exert a minimal influence on national cultivated land resilience;4)The combined effect of rotation fallow scale and grain yield per unit area has the strongest explanatory power for the resilience of cultivated land system.

关 键 词：农业绿色转型 耕地系统韧性 时空演化特征 影响因素 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]