西北雨养农业区马铃薯产量对气候变化的响应——以定西市为例  

Response of Potato Yield to Climate Change in Rainfed Agricultural Region of Northwest China——A Case Study of Dingxi City

作　　者：周小东 陈富[1,2] 张彤彤 孙小花[1] 张荣 黄伟 张勇[1,2] 王芳芳[1] ZHOU Xiaodong;CHEN Fu;ZHANG Tongtong;SUN Xiaohua;ZHANG Rong;HUANG Wei;ZHANG Yong;WANG Fangfang(Potato Research Institute,Gansu Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070,China;Gansu Yihang Potato Industry Technology Development Co.,Ltd.,Lanzhou,Gansu 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省农业科学院马铃薯研究所,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃一航薯业科技发展有限责任公司,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《中国马铃薯》2024年第4期313-321,共9页Chinese Potato Journal

基　　金：甘肃省农业科学院院列重点研发计划(2024GAAS16,2023GAAS20)。

摘　　要：为探究气候变化背景下西北雨养农业区马铃薯全生育期气候因子的变化规律及其对马铃薯产量的影响,利用Pearson相关、滑动相关和多元线性逐步回归方法对定西市2005-2022年马铃薯全生育期逐月气候因子与马铃薯产量间的关系展开研究。2005-2022年研究区在马铃薯全生育期表现出“暖湿化”趋势;马铃薯气象产量与气温相关性最高,其次是降水,最后是云量与自校准帕默尔干旱指数(Self-calibrating palmer drought index,scPDSI);马铃薯全生育期及7月气温对气象产量抑制作用较大,其中全生育期平均气温可解释气象产量50.6%的变化;5月降水对马铃薯生长表现为负效应,6月降水表现为正效应;气象产量与气候因子的响应关系不稳定,随研究区降水量增加和气温升高,2010年以后气象产量与全生育期平均最高气温由不显著负相关增强至显著负相关。若未来气候持续变暖,定西市马铃薯产量将受到严峻挑战。Pearson correlation,sliding correlation and multiple linear stepwise regression were used to study the relationship between monthly climatic factors and potato yield in the whole growth period of potato in Dingxi City from 2005 to 2022 under the background of climate change in order to clarify the change pattern of climatic factors in the whole growth period of potato and its influence on potato yield in the rain-fed agricultural area of northwest China.From 2005 to 2022,the study area showed a trend of"warm and humid"in the whole growth period of potato,and the correlation between potato meteorological yield and temperature was the highest,followed by precipitation,and finally cloud cover and self-calibrating palmer drought index(scPDSI).The temperature in the entire growth period and July of potato had a great inhibitory effect on meteorological yield.In fact,the mean temperature during this growth period accounted for 50.6%of the variation in meteorological yield.In May,precipitation negatively impacted potato growth,while precipitation in June had a positive effect.The relationship between meteorological yield and climatic factors is inconsistent.Following 2010,as precipitation and temperature increased in the study area,the correlation between meteorological yield and the mean maximum temperature in the whole growth period shifted from a non-significant negative correlation to a significant negative correlation.If climate warming continues,potato production in Dingxi City will face serious challenges.

关 键 词：马铃薯产量 气候变化 响应关系 定西市 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学] S532[农业科学—农业基础科学]