百年大变局下的东北亚之变  

Changes in Northeast Asia under Great Changes Unprecedented in the Recent Century

作　　者：张蕴岭 朱锋[3] 樊小菊[4] ZHANG Yunling;ZHU Feng;FAN Xiaoju

机构地区：[1]山东大学国际问题研究院,威海264200 [2]中国社会科学院学部 [3]南京大学国际关系学院,南京210000 [4]中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2025年第2期1-14,143,共15页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：分析百年大变局下的东北亚之变,探讨建立在区域认同共识基础上的东北亚区域秩序构建。东北亚仍然处在多种矛盾交织、充满风险的历史性转变进程中,在中美战略博弈态势下,以美日韩构建准军事同盟和俄朝加强战略合作为主要表现,呈现“组团对抗”式的地缘政治紧张局面。“特朗普2.0”时代正式开启,给美国及国际社会带来强大冲击。特朗普实施新一轮权力扩张主义,对东北亚区域安全构成新挑战。东北亚亦面临新机遇,存在求稳止乱、维护和平与发展的意愿。东北亚格局正在酝酿新的变化,在区域认同共识基础上进行区域制度构建,是走向新东北亚的可行路径。Based on the two basic elements of regional identity,namely,linkage and interest,this paper analyzes the situation and future development of Northeast Asia,analyzes the changes in Northeast Asia under the century of great changes,and discusses the construction of a regional system in Northeast Asia based on the consensus of regional identity using the cognitive approach of regional identity.Currently,the Northeast Asia is still in the process of historical transformation of a variety of contradictions intertwined and full of risks.Under the situation of Sino-US strategic game,the United States,Japan and ROK build a quasi-military alliance,and Russia and DPRK strengthen the strategic cooperation,presenting the geopolitical tension of“camp confrontation”.The United States is an important variable affecting the situation in Northeast Asia.Since he took office less than two months ago,Donald Trump has brought a powerful impact to both the United States and the international community,and Trump’s implementation of a new round of power expansionism has posed new challenges and pressures on regional security in Northeast Asia.Meanwhile,Northeast Asia is also faced with new opportunities,and there is a growing willingness to seek stability,stop chaotic situation and maintain peace and development.New changes are brewing in Northeast Asia,and the construction of a regional system based on regional consensus is a possible path towards building a new Northeast Asia.

关 键 词：百年大变局 区域认同 东北亚秩序构建 中美战略博弈 特朗普2.0 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] D831[政治法律—政治学]