欧盟智库对俄罗斯能源外交认知研究  

The EU Think Tanks’Perceptions of Russia’s Energy Diplomacy

作　　者：孙淼 SUN Miao

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)外国语学院,青岛266580

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2025年第2期131-142,150,共13页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

基　　金：山东省外事研究与发展智库课题“俄欧能源博弈危机话语协同治理研究”(202210)。

摘　　要：俄罗斯作为世界能源大国,其外交政策的变化对全球能源市场有重要影响。乌克兰危机以来,欧盟智库对俄罗斯能源外交的动因、效果、影响以及未来发展进行全面、系统研究,将能源外交视为俄实现出口多元化、获取政治利益和保持市场影响力的重要手段;认为俄向东寻找新市场的努力短期内难见成效;俄欧能源合作关系的恶化既带来风险也蕴含机遇,俄能源政策可能削弱欧盟整体政策效果、破坏欧盟内部团结,但俄也面临较高的经济风险;欧盟对俄能源制裁有助于自身加强与其他国家的能源联系,推动欧洲能源转型,并具有抑制俄能源外交的效果。欧盟智库认为,作为俄罗斯能源出口向东转的主要合作伙伴,中国现阶段能为俄罗斯提供一定支撑,但中俄合作的纵深发展仍面临一定制约。As a major global energy power,Russia’s foreign policy changes have a significant impact on the global energy market.Since the Ukraine conflict,the energy game between Russia and Europe and the issue of Russia’s energy diplomacy have attracted considerable attention in academic circles.The EU think tanks,as the core of the“power field,”have conducted systematic research on the motives,effects,impact,and future development of Russia’s energy diplomacy.They view energy diplomacy as an important tool for Russia to achieve export diversification,gain political benefits,and maintain market influence.It is believed that Russia’s efforts to find new markets in the East are unlikely to show immediate results.The deterioration of Russia-Europe energy cooperation brings both risks and opportunities.Russia’s energy policy may weaken the overall effectiveness of EU policies and undermine internal EU unity.However,Russia faces higher economic risks than Europe due to factors such as the economic environment,the proportion of energy economics,and the transition period toward the East.Additionally,EU energy sanctions against Russia help strengthen its energy relations with other countries,promote the European energy transition,and limit the effectiveness of Russian energy diplomacy.According to EU think tanks,Russia currently needs stable economic revenues to offset the economic risks caused by the escalation of the Ukraine conflict.By compensating for the losses in the European market through Asian markets,Russia can stabilize its economic growth to some extent.However,as Russia’s primary partner in its energy export shift to the East,China can provide some support,but the deeper development of cooperation between China and Russia still faces constraints.

关 键 词：欧盟智库 乌克兰危机 能源外交 能源转型 能源博弈 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]