基于D-S证据理论的跨区域重大基础设施运维绩效评估  

作　　者：刘凯 陈丹[2] 

机构地区：[1]郑州路桥建设投资集团 [2]河南财经政法大学

出　　处：《工程经济》2024年第12期19-27,共9页ENGINEERING ECONOMY

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJCZH047)

摘　　要：跨区域重大基础设施是一类对国家安全、公共健康和环境保护等方面均具有重要影响的大型公共工程。其运营水平直接影响了社会的稳定和创造的价值。鉴于此,本研究提出了熵权法和D-S证据理论模型相结合的项目运维管理绩效评价模型,并以成渝高铁为例,对模型的有效性进行了实证分析。结果表明,成渝高铁的综合运维水平评价等级为良好,其中环境效益评价等级为一般,社会关系、经济效益、运维能力均为良好。强化项目运营过程中政府间协作能力,减少项目运营对周边环境的影响,提高资源利用率,增强项目可持续水平是未来跨区域重大基础设施运营管理的主要目标。为了实现目标,本研究分别从社会关系、环境效益、经济效益和运维能力四方面提出了发展建议。本研究不仅为跨区域重大基础设施项目运维绩效评估提供了典型案例,也为项目运维绩效评估提供了新思路新方法。Cross-regional mega infrastructure project(CRMIP)is a kind of megaproject with important impact on political,economic,social,scientific and technological development,environmental protection,public health and national security.The operation and maintenance(O&M)directly affects the stability of society and the value created.Therefore,this study proposes an evaluation model of O&M management combining entropy method and D-S evidence theory model.And the model was empirically analyzed with the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed railway as an example.The results show that the evaluation of comprehensive O&M of Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed railway is good,among which the evaluation of environmental benefits is fair,and the social relationship,economic benefits and operation capability are all good.It strengthens the collaborative management ability among governments during the O&M,reduces the impact on the surrounding environment along the route,improves the utilization rate of resources,and enhances the sustainable development.To help achieve this goal,we propose policy recommendations in four areas:social relations,environmental benefits,economic benefits,and operational capacity.This study can provide a typical case for the evaluation of O&M,and also provides a new method and idea for the evaluation of CRMIP.Since the indicator system constructed in this paper is based on China’s national conditions,whether it is applicable to other countries and regions remains to be verified.

关 键 词：跨区域重大基础设施 运维管理 绩效评价 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]