中菲贸易的竞争与互补关系及潜力分析  

Competitive and Complementary Analysis of Trade between China and the Philippines

作　　者：马飒[1] 赵文倩 MA Sa;ZHAO Wenqian

机构地区：[1]南通大学商学院

出　　处：《金融发展》2024年第2期115-126,共12页Financial Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字技术对国际产业分工格局的重塑与对策研究”(21BJL106)

摘　　要：本文利用ESI指数、RCA指数分析了中菲贸易竞争性与贸易互补性,并基于随机前沿贸易引力模型对两国贸易的影响因素与贸易潜力进行了测算。结果显示:中菲两国在SITC0(粮食和活畜)、SITC1(饮料和烟草)、SITC2(不可食用原材料)、SITC4(动植物油、油脂和蜡)等资源密集型商品,以及SITC6(主要原料制成品)、SITC8(杂项制成品)等劳动密集型商品的贸易互补性明显,在资本密集型商品SITC7(机械和运输设备)的出口相似度高,贸易竞争性强;中菲贸易的影响因素众多,除经济规模、人口数量、地理距离以外,是否签订自贸协定、贸易自由度、金融自由度、监管质量等因素,对双边贸易额具有显著正向作用;中菲贸易潜力巨大,存在较大提升空间,菲律宾应尽快与中国重启谈判,恢复政治互信,促进双边贸易增长。This paper analyses the trade competitiveness and trade complementarity between China and the Philippines using the ESI index and the RCA index,and measures the influencing factors and trade potential of trade between the two countries based on the stochastic frontier trade gravity model.The results show that:first,China and the Philippines are more complementary in the six commodity sectors of SITC0,SITC1,SITC2,SITC4,SITC6,and SITC8,and more competitive in the commodity sector of SITC7;second,there are many factors influencing China-Philippines trade,and economic scale of both countries,Population size of the Philippines,signing free trade agreements,trade freedom,financial freedom,and the quality of regulation have a remarkable promotion;third,China-Philippines trade has great potential and there is much room for improvement.The Philippines should resume negotiations with China and restore political mutual trust as soon as possible to promote bilateral trade growth.

关 键 词：菲律宾 竞争性与互补性 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]