2024年前三季度中国经济形势分析及四季度展望  

Analysis of China’s Economic Situation in the First Three Quarters of 2024 and Outlook for the Fourth Quarter

作　　者：许宪春 唐雅 王洋[3] 常子豪 XU Xianchun;TANG Ya;WANG Yang;CHANG Zihao

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]南京大学政府管理学院 [3]对外经济贸易大学数字经济实验室 [4]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《金融发展》2024年第2期1-12,共12页Financial Development

摘　　要：2024年前三季度,中国经济在复杂多变的国内外环境中实现4.8%的增速,为全年经济增长目标打下一定基础,但也面临诸多压力。本文在前期构建的生产、需求、收入和价格分析框架的基础上,利用相应统计指标和统计数据对前三季度经济运行基本情况展开分析,总结出以下特点:生产方面,前三季度经济整体平稳增长,增速有所回落;第二产业增速回落,高技术制造业和装备制造业保持较快增长;第三产业增速有所回升,现代服务业快速发展。需求方面,消费需求对经济增长的拉动作用有所减弱;投资需求对经济增长的拉动作用依然不足;净出口需求表现较好。收入方面,居民收入保持增长,增速有所放缓;工业企业利润增速回落幅度较大,但以高技术制造业为代表的新动能行业表现良好。价格方面,前三季度消费领域价格在低位上波动,生产领域价格持续下降。展望四季度,政策支持力度有望持续增强,特别是房地产、消费和制造业等领域的一揽子增量政策将激发市场活力。随着系列增量政策的逐步落实,四季度经济增速有望企稳回升,全年5%左右的增长目标有望实现。In the first three quarters of 2024,China’s economy achieved a growth rate of 4.8%amid a complex and volatile domestic and international environment,laying a foundation for the annual economic growth target,though significant pressures remain.This article analyzes the economic performance of the first three quarters based on an analytical framework of production,demand,income,and price.Using relevant statistical indicators and data,it identifies the following key characteristics:In terms of production,the economy experienced steady growth overall,though with a deceleration in pace.Growth in the secondary sector slowed,while high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained rapid growth.The tertiary sector saw an acceleration in growth,driven by the rapid development of modern services.On the demand side,the contribution of consumer demand to economic growth weakened,and investment demand continued to provide insufficient support.Net export demand performed relatively well.Regarding income,household incomes continued to grow,though at a slower rate.Profits in industrial enterprises declined significantly,yet new dynamic industries represented by high-tech manufacturing performed well.In terms of prices,consumer prices fluctuated at low levels,while producer prices continued to decline.Looking ahead to the fourth quarter,policy support is expected to increase,particularly through a set of incremental policies in real estate,consumption,and manufacturing,which are anticipated to stimulate market vitality.With the gradual implementation of these incremental policies,economic growth in the fourth quarter is likely to stabilize and rebound,bringing the annual growth target of around 5%within reach.

关 键 词：经济形势 展望 企稳回升 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]