中国劳动力市场的“一老一小”问题  

The"Old and Young"Issue in China's Labor Market

作　　者：蔡昉[1,2] CAI Fang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院国家高端智库 [2]中国金融四十人论坛(CF40)学术委员会

出　　处：《新金融》2025年第3期3-9,共7页New Finance

摘　　要：“一老一小”就业群体应是就业优先政策的重点关注人群。一方面,在当前的发展阶段,我国劳动年龄人口的年龄分布呈U型,即青年就业人群和大龄就业人群的占比相对较高,而中间年龄人群相对较少;另一方面,劳动力市场的匹配度与年龄具有倒U型曲线关系,即中间年龄人群在市场上的匹配度最佳。U型的劳动年龄人口分布和倒U型的劳动力市场匹配度在中国当前发展阶段下同时存在,带来了特有的与人口相关的劳动力市场特征和结构性就业矛盾。可以从人力资本培养和公共就业服务两个方面入手解决这一矛盾:第一,加强政策工具箱的充实与贯通,除了原有的宏观经济政策手段,还需要结合公共就业服务、劳动力市场功能完善以及相关体制机制改革等其他政策工具。第二,从结构入手释放总量潜力,注重实现城镇就业的正增长。其关键路径之一,是以人力资本质量替代劳动力数量,包括加强人力资本的培养、提升劳动者的技能水平等。The employment groups of the"old and young"should be the focus of employment priority policies.On the one hand,at the current stage of development,the age distribution of China's working-age population is U-shaped,meaning that the proportions of young and older employment groups are relatively high,while that of middle-aged group is relatively low.On the other hand,the matching eficiency of the labor market has an inverse U-shaped relationship with age,meaning that the middle-aged group has the best matching efficiency in the market.The coexistence of the U-shaped distribution of working-age population and the inverse U-shaped matching efficiency of the labor market at China's current stage of development brings unique labor market characteristics and structural employment contradictions related to population.These contradictions can be addressed from two aspects:human capital development and public employment services.First,it is necessary to enrich and integrate policy tools.In addition to existing macroeconomic policy instruments,other policy tools such as public employment services,improvement of labor market functions,and related institutional and systemic reforms should be combined.Second,the key to addressing the issue is to release the potential of the total amount from a structural perspective and focus on achieving positive growth in urban employment.One key pathway is to substitute the quantity of human capital for the quantity of labor,including strengthening the development of human capital and improving the skill levels of workers.

关 键 词：“一老一小” 就业政策 劳动力市场 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]