老有所养:引导银行业应对人口结构变化  

Aging Gracefully:Steering the Banking Sector Through Demographic Shifts

作　　者：Patrick A.Imam Christian Schmieder 李丽丽(翻译) 周正铭(翻译) Patrick A.Imam;Christian Schmieder

机构地区：[1]国际清算银行 [2]不详

出　　处：《新金融》2025年第3期58-66,共9页New Finance

摘　　要：文章分析了2000—2022年人口老龄化如何通过银行资产负债表和风险偏好的变化影响银行体系的稳定性。虽然预期老龄化导致的期限转换下降可能会缩小风险敞口,但老龄化也可能促使银行采取追求收益的策略,带来新的风险。通过对过去二十年发达经济体的全面考察,研究结果表明,与人口老龄化相关的银行稳定性普遍增强。然而,银行对人口变化的适应性反应可能会带来尾部风险。鉴于全球正迅速向老龄化社会转变,政策制定者需要保持积极主动和警惕性。考虑到历史先例,相对稳定时期往往是新兴风险的先兆,这一点尤为重要。We analyze how aging populations in might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 20002022.While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure,an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors,offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations.Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades,our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations.However,the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks.Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies,our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant.This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.

关 键 词：老龄化 人口结构 银行风险承担 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]