收入风险对家庭经济韧性的影响研究  

The Impact of Income Risk on Household Economic Resilience

作　　者：胡子豪 熊学萍[1] HU Zihao;XIONG Xueping

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《新金融》2025年第3期67-76,共10页New Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“人口老龄化背景下中国农村居民养老财富储备行为研究”(72174069)。

摘　　要：随着经济波动性的增强,收入风险成为影响家庭经济稳定的突出因素,如何提升家庭的经济韧性已成为社会稳定的核心议题。本文利用2012至2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,发现收入风险对家庭经济韧性具有显著的负面影响。影响机制分析结果显示,保险支出的增加减弱了收入风险对家庭经济韧性的负面影响,而流动性约束则强化了这一负面效应。此外,收入风险对低收入、低学历家庭的经济韧性削弱作用尤为显著;对通信和礼金支出较低的家庭影响更大;而对消费和医疗支出较低的家庭抑制作用相对较小。基于以上结论,本文提出了完善社会保险体系、增加家庭储蓄激励、缓解流动性压力等政策建议,为提升家庭经济韧性提供参考。Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)spanning 2012 to 2020,this paper examines the impact of income risk on household economic resilience.The findings indicate that income risk significantly undermines economic resilience,with each unit increase in income risk resulting in an 8.3% decrease in household resilience.To validate the robustness of these results,a series of tests,including endogeneity analysis,adjustments to the poverty threshold,and the exclusion of samples from municipalities,were conducted all supporting the initial findings.Mechanism analysis reveals that increased insurance expenditures mitigate the negative impact of income risk on economic resilience,while liquidity constraints intensify this adverse effect.Moreover,heterogeneity in human capital shows that the detrimental effects of income risk are more pronounced in households with lower income and educational levels;in terms of social capital heterogeneity,households with lower expenditures on communication and ceremonial gifts are more adversely affected;and concerning cost of living heterogeneity,households with lower consumption and healthcare spending exhibit relatively less suppression in economic resilience.The conclusions of this study provide critical references for formulating targeted policies to enhance household economic resilience.

关 键 词：家庭经济韧性 收入风险 流动性约束 保险支出 风险管理 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]