应用集中度和圆形分布法分析保山市恙虫病季节性特征  

Seasonal characteristics of scrub typhus in Baoshan City using concentration ratio and circular distribution methods

作　　者：李艳萍[1] 税铁军[2] 何恺[1] 杨和仙[1] 赵丽娟[1] 杨小玲[1] 段丽忠[1] 王黎明[1] 黄东升[1] LI Yanping;SHUI Tiejun;HE Kai;YANG Hexian;ZHAO Lijuan;YANG Xiaoling;DUAN Lizhong;WANG Liming;HUANG Dongsheng(Baoshan Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Baoshan 678000,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Kunming 650000,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]保山市疾病预防控制中心,云南保山678000 [2]云南省疾病预防控制中心,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》2025年第1期147-151,共5页Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases

基　　金：兴保英才培养计划(2023023)。

摘　　要：对中国疾病预防控制信息系统中云南省保山市2017年1月1日—2023年12月31日上报的恙虫病监测数据进行统计分析,计算恙虫病集中度M值,分析其季节性强弱特征;用圆形分布法推算集中发病高峰日及流行高峰期。对集中度M值和圆形分布集中趋势r值进行Pearson相关性分析。2017—2023年保山市共报告11537例病例,年均报告发病率是65.12/10万,2023年报告发病率最高(96.71/10万)。发病率总体呈上升趋势(χ^(2)=484.882,P<0.01)。发病人群以农民为主(78.79%,9090/11537)。2017—2023年报告病例均集中在7—10月,其中8月份报告病例数占比均为最高,依次为26.74%、33.13%、34.25%、32.84%、34.55%、27.17%、39.34%,合计占33.04%(3812/11537)。逐年逐月雷达图呈现单峰分布,满足集中度和圆形分布法分析的前提条件。2017—2023年合计发病数的集中度M值为0.779,各年度M值范围为0.729~0.814,表明保山市恙虫病发病具有很强的季节性。2017—2023年合计发病数圆形分布集中趋势r为0.758,α=227.38°(184.89°,269.87°)(Z=6626.66,P<0.001),对应发病高峰日为8月21日,流行高峰期为7月6日—9月30日。集中度M值和圆形分布集中趋势r值的Pearson相关系数为0.940,P=0.00165,二者呈现高度正相关。A statistical analysis was performed on the scrub typhus surveillance data in Baoshan City,Yun-nan Province from January 1,2017 to December 31,2023 reported to the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control In-formation System.The concentration ratio(M value)of scrub typhus was calculated to analyze the seasonal distribution characteristics,and the day of the peak incidence of scrub typhus and epidemic peaks of scrub typhus were esti-mated using the circular distribution method.A Pearson correlation analysis was performed on the M value and the concentration parameter(r value)of a circular distribution.A total of 11537 cases with scrub typhus were reported in Baoshan City from 2017 to 2023,with an annual reported incidence rate of 65.12/105,and the highest incidence in 2023(96.71/105),and the incidence appeared an overall tendency towards a rise from 2017 to 2023(χ^(2)=484.882,P<0.01).Farmers were the primary occupation among all cases with scrub typhus(78.79%,9090/11537),and the reported scrub typhus cases are concentrated during the period between July and October from 2017 to 2023,with the highest proportion of reported cases in August each year,and the numbers of reported scrub typhus cases ac-counted for 26.74%,33.13%,34.25%,32.84%,34.55%,27.17%and 39.34%of total cases each year from 2017 to 2023,which accounted for 33.04%(3812/11537)of total cases.The radar chart appeared a unimodal distribution in each year and each month,which met the prerequisite for concentration ratio and circular distribution analyses.The M value of total scrub typhus cases was 0.779 from 2017 to 2023,with 0.729 to 0.814 each year during the study period,indicating a strong seasonality of scrub typhus incidence in Baoshan City.The r value of the circular distribu-tion of scrub typhus incidence was 0.758,withαof 227.38°(184.89°,269.87°)(Z=6626.66,P<0.001)indicating the day of peak incidence on August 21,and epidemic peak during the period from July 6 to September 30.In addi-tion,Pearson correlation analysis revealed a strong positive

关 键 词：恙虫病 季节性分布 集中度 圆形分布法 

分 类 号：R757.3[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]