2023年北京市朝阳区猴痘病例流行病学特征分析  

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with Mpox in Chaoyang district of Beijing,2023

作　　者：林杨 孙于淳 张鼎言 黄晨铭 齐啸[1] 陈田木 吴钶[1] 张烨 丁秋丽 程坦坦 韩柏慧 LIN Yang;SUN Yuchun;ZHANG Dingyan;HUANG Chenming;QI Xiao;CHEN Tianmu;WU Ke;ZHANG Ye;DING Qiuli;CHENG Tantan;HAN Baihui(Chaoyang District Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100021,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]北京市朝阳区疾病预防控制中心,100021 [2]厦门大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《首都公共卫生》2025年第1期51-55,共5页Capital Journal of Public Health

基　　金：中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程(编号:2021-I2M-5-005);2021年度北京市重大疫情防治重点专科项目。

摘　　要：目的探讨2023年北京市朝阳区126例猴痘病例的流行病学特征和临床表现。方法采用横断面调查方法,收集和分析2023年现住址为朝阳区的猴痘病例的基本情况、流行病学史以及临床特征等。利用Weibull分布、Gamma分布和对数正态分布拟合了猴痘潜伏期数据,估算猴痘潜伏期。结果研究对象的年龄范围为17~54岁,男性占99.21%(125/126),其中96.00%(120/125)为男男性行为人群。50.00%(63/126)的病例曾有HIV感染史。7.94%(10/126)的病例否认21 d内性行为史,38.79%(45/116)病例自述近21 d安全性行为史。对数正态、Weibull和Gamma分布调整后,第5个百分位数的潜伏期为2.00~2.50 d,中位数潜伏期为8.10~9.20 d,第95个百分位数的潜伏期为21.90~26.30 d。结论男男性行为仍然是本地区猴痘传播的主要途径,密切接触可能也存在一定的传播风险。鉴于猴痘病毒感染途径复杂性,监测猴痘病例潜伏期,对于调整密切接触者的健康监测期限具有重大公共卫生意义。Objective To investigate the clinical and epidemic features of Mpox cases in Chaoyang district,Beijing,so as to inform targeted prevention strategies.Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted and analyzed demographic data,epidemiological history and clinical manifestations.The log-normal,Weibull,and Gamma distributions were used to estimate the parametric incubation period distribution with determinable incubation periods and to fit the data.Results The study population ranged from 17 to 54 years old,with males comprising 99.21%(125/126),and 96.00%(120/125)of these population identified as men who have sex with men(MSM).50.00%(63/126)of cases had a history of HIV infection,and7.94%(10/126)of cases denied a history of sexual activity within 21 days.38.79%(45/116)of the patients reported their history of safe sex in the past 21 days.The incubation period was estimated with the log-normal,Weibull and Gamma models,indicating a 5th percentile incubation of 2.00-2.50 days,a median of 8.10-9.20 days,and a 95th percentile of 21.90-26.30 days.Conclusions MSM remains the main route of Mpox virus transmission in this region,and there is also a certain risk of transmission through close contact.Given the complexity of Mpox virus infection pathways,monitoring the incubation period of Mpox is of great public health significance for adjusting the health monitoring period of close contacts.

关 键 词：猴痘 男男性行为人群 流行病学特征 潜伏期 临床特征 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R511[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]