基于多参数性能退化竞争失效的光电探测器储存寿命评估  

Storage life evaluation of photodetector based on multi-parameter performance degradation and competitive failure

作　　者：张也平 杨童博 李紫薇 ZHANG Yeping;YANG Tongbo;LI Ziwei(Institute of Fluid Physics,China Academy of Engineering Physics,Mianyang 621900,China;Department of Statistics,School of Mathematics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;School of Information Engineering,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China;Research Center for Reliability of Equipment in Complex Environments,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国工程物理研究院流体物理研究所,绵阳621900 [2]西南交通大学数学学院统计系,成都611756 [3]西南科技大学信息工程学院,绵阳621010 [4]西南科技大学复杂环境装备可靠性研究中心,绵阳621010

出　　处：《机械强度》2025年第4期20-26,共7页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(12205277)。

摘　　要：针对光电探测器的储存寿命评估问题,综合考虑样品关键性能参数有无变坏或者向好的趋势情况,提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛法的多参数竞争失效储存寿命评估新方法。首先,通过性能退化建模选择单一参数的最优退化模型,从而对于退化趋势递增的样品根据失效阈值计算其伪寿命,对于退化趋势递减的样品将其伪寿命看作右删失数据;然后,根据伪寿命数据结合最大期望(Expectation Maximization,EM)算法选择单一性能参数的最优分布;最后,通过蒙特卡洛采样法进行多参数的竞争失效评估。以光电探测器储存案例为实例,验证了该方法的可行性。Aiming at the storage life evaluation of photodetectors,a new evaluation method for multi-parameter competitive failure storage life assessment based on Monte-Carlo method was proposed.This method comprehensively considered whether the key performance parameters of the sample have deteriorated or improved trend.Firstly,the optimal degradation model with a single parameter was selected by performance degradation modeling,so that the pseudo-life of the sample with increasing degradation trend was calculated according to the failure threshold,and the pseudo-life was regarded as the right-censored data for the sample with decreasing degradation trend.Furthermore,the optimal distribution of a single performance parameter was selected based on the pseudo-life data combined with the expectation maximization(EM)algorithm,and then the competitive failure evaluation of multi-parameters was carried out by Monte-Carlo sampling method.According to the case analysis of the photodetector storage,the feasibility of this method was verified.

关 键 词：多参数性能退化 竞争失效 储存寿命 最大期望算法 蒙特卡洛采样 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计] O213.2[理学—数学]