场景驱动的危机决策评估框架构建研究  

Research on the Construction of Scenario-driven Crisis Decision-making Evaluation Framework

作　　者：张一帆 战晓苏[2] 耿帅 ZHANG Yifan;ZHAN Xiaosu;GENG Shuai(PLA Academy of Military Science Graduate School,Beijing 100091,China;PLA Academy of Military Science Strategic Assessment Advisory Centre,Beijing 100091,China;Unit 31015 of PLA,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]军事科学院研究生院,北京100091 [2]军事科学院战略评估咨询中心,北京100091 [3]解放军31015部队,北京100091

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2025年第3期34-40,共7页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：全军军事类研究生资助课题(JY2022B176)。

摘　　要：评估框架是提升决策主体对评估活动认识的重要指导,通过对危机决策过程的评估需求分析,设计由场景单元、关系和属性构成的危机决策场景模型,明确场景库的构建和匹配流程。针对“事前-研判”“事中-处置”“事后-复盘”决策场景,设计场景驱动的危机决策评估框架,定义和描述了框架中的“评估数据、评估要素、评估模型、评估流程”等内容,从评估视角为危机决策提供理论参考。The evaluation framework is an important guide to improve the understanding of decisionmaking subjects on evaluation activities,and through the analysis of the evaluation needs in crisis decision-making process,a crisis decision-making scenario model,this model is designed,which is composed of scenario units,relationships and attributes,then the construction and the matching process of the scenario library are clarified.Aiming at the decision-making scenarios of“prejudgement”,“inprocess-disposal”and“after-review”,a scenario-driven crisis decision-making evaluation framework is designed,and such contents as“evaluation data,elements,model,and process”in the framework are defined and described.A theoretical reference is provided for crisis decision-making from the perspective of evaluation.

关 键 词：场景驱动 危机 决策 评估框架 

分 类 号：E917[军事]