平均利润率的文本分析、技术分歧与经验测算  

Text Analysis,Technical Divergence,and Empirical Calculation of Average Profit Ratio

作　　者：何召鹏[1] 肖畅 He Zhaopeng;Xiao Chang

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2025年第3期24-35,共12页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学理论体系中的国家理论”(19ZDA057);国家社会科学基金重大项目“畅通国民经济循环的理论基础和制度设计研究”(24ZDA014);中央财经大学重大研究支持计划“中国特色社会主义政治经济学研究”。

摘　　要：科学测算平均利润率有助于把握资本积累的现实动态并检验平均利润率下降规律。由于缺乏文本分析,研究者在四种不同内涵的利润率之间产生分歧。经验研究存在诸多局限性,在当前数据和技术方法下得出的平均利润率只能用于社会总资本积累的定性分析。技术性分歧虽然在理论层面上存在讨论意义,但并不影响测算结果的经验稳健性。经验研究显示:(1)中国的平均利润率下降与资本有机构成提高、非生产性支出增加、次级部门收支赤字等因素有关;(2)2010年之后,次级部门收支赤字的扩大导致平均利润率加速下降;(3)非生产性支出挤压利润论只在经济资源稀缺的条件下成立,中国经济的非生产性支出并没有挤压平均利润;(4)资本有机构成提高和非生产性支出增加是生产力发展的必然结果,生产劳动的范围应随生产力的发展和经济服务化的时代趋势而不断扩大,否则会对利润率的测算结果造成技术性影响。Scientific estimation of the average profit ratio helps to grasp the real dynamics of capital accumulation.Due to the lack of text analysis,researchers have diverged between four different connotations of profit ratio.There are many limitations to empirical research,and the average profit ratio obtained under current data and technological methods can only be used for qualitative analysis of total social capital accumulation.Although technical differences have theoretical significance,they do not affect the empirical robustness of the measurement results.Empirical research shows that:(1) The decline in China's average profit ratio is related to factors such as an increase in organic capital composition,an increase in nonproductive expenditures,and deficits in secondary sector income and expenditure;(2) After 2010,the expansion of the deficit in the secondary sector led to an accelerated decline in the average profit ratio;(3) The theory of nonproductive expenditures squeezing profits only holds true under conditions of scarce economic resources,and nonproductive expenditures in the Chinese economy have not squeezed average profits;(4) The increase in the organic composition of capital and nonproductive expenditures is an inevitable result of the development of productive forces.The scope of productive labor should continue to expand with the development of productive forces and the trend of economic servitization,otherwise it will have a technical impact on the calculation of profit margins.

关 键 词：平均利润率 技术局限性 非生产性支出 经济服务化 

分 类 号：F014.39[经济管理—政治经济学]