“十五五”时期释放农村内需的潜力空间研究  

Research on the Potential Space for Releasing Rural Domestic Demand During the"15th Five-Year Plan"Period

作　　者：农业农村部农村经济研究中心课题组 金文成 炎天尧 翟雪玲 冷博峰 原瑞玲 李佳江 Research Group of Rural Economy Research Center of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs(Research Center for Rural Economy,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100810)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部农村经济研究中心,北京100810 [2]农业农村部农村经济研究中心 [3]农业农村部农村经济研究中心市场与贸易研究室 [4]华中农业大学

出　　处：《重庆社会科学》2025年第3期5-25,共21页Chongqing Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“建设农业强国的主要目标、重点任务与对策研究”(23ZDA046);农业农村部发展规划司“十五五前瞻性研究”课题“‘十五五’释放农村内需潜力政策措施研究”。

摘　　要：新发展格局下激活经济动力的关键在于扩大内需,而扩大内需农村空间巨大、大有可为。当前正处于“十四五”与“十五五”交接的关键节点,靠前谋定未来五年的发展思路、找准政策发力方向是当务之急。“十四五”阶段,我国农村消费依然持续增长、农村投资整体稳定,但“十五五”期间进一步释放农村内需仍面临农民增收动能减弱、农业农村投资增长乏力、农村相关基础设施和公共服务发展滞后、农村新消费新投资场景建设迟缓等制约因素,新阶段持续扩大农村内需,应秉持与促进农民增收、提高农村现代化水平、提升农村居民获得感协同推进的原则,要继续深化改革、完善投入体制机制、发掘新增长点,应重点从宜居农房改造、新能源汽车下乡、高标准农田提升等10大领域发力,预计“十五五”期间累计财政投入3万亿~3.2万亿元,可释放农村内需范围约20万亿元。The key to activating economic momentum under the new development pattern lies in expanding domestic demand,and there is a huge potential for expanding domestic demand in rural areas.At present,we are at a critical juncture between the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 15th Five-Year Plan.It is imperative to strategize for the next five years and identify the direction of policy efforts.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,China's rural consumption continued to grow and rural investment remained stable overall.However,during the 15th Five-Year Plan period,further releasing rural domestic demand still faces constraints such as weakening the momentum of farmers'income increase,weak growth in agricultural and rural investment,lagging development of rural infrastructure and public services,and slow construction of new consumption and investment scenarios in rural areas.To continue to expand rural domestic demand in the new stage,we should adhere to the principle of promoting farmers'income increase,improving the level of rural-modernization,and enhancing the sense of gain of rural residents.We should continue to deepen reform,improve investment systems and mechanisms,and explore new growth points.We should focus on 10 major areas such as livable rural housing renovation,new energy vehicles going to the countryside,and high-standard farmland improvement.It is expected that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period,the cumulative fiscal investment will be 3trillion-3.2trillion yuan,which can release about 20 trillion yuan of rural domestic demand.

关 键 词：农村内需潜力 “十五五”发展战略 消费与投资 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]