新时期我国外贸发展的新格局、新动能和新风险  

New Patterns,New Drivers,and New Risks in China's Foreign Trade Development in the New Era

作　　者：秦若冰 宁静馨 马弘[3,4] QIN Ruobing;NING Jingxin;MA Hong(University of International Business and Economics;Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学中国世界贸易组织研究院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [3]清华大学经济管理学院经济系 [4]清华大学中国经济研究中心

出　　处：《国际贸易》2025年第3期5-19,共15页Intertrade

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“大国竞争背景下关键领域产业链供应链重构的风险评估与对策研究”(23&ZD046);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“碳关税与国际贸易分工调整:政策设计、效应评估与对策研究”(72203038);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“贸易摩擦对全球供应链重构的影响”(23QD10);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“绿色发展背景下碳边境税对全球价值链分工的影响机制与效应研究”(22YJC790098)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：面临外部复杂环境,我国对外贸易结构和增长动能正加速调整,与之伴随的机遇与风险并存。如何系统理解现阶段我国外贸发展正在经历的结构转型和动能转换,调整对外贸易发展战略,成为新形势下建设更高水平开放型经济新体制和贸易强国的关键所在。本文着眼我国外贸发展的新格局、新动能和新风险,梳理中国货物贸易在产品结构、区域贸易布局、国际市场分布、参与国际分工地位方式方面正经历的四个重大结构化转型,并着重分析中间品贸易、服务贸易、跨境电商、绿色贸易等新动能的发展趋势和结构特征。最后,本文在研判对外贸易新风险的基础上,从国内和国际双重视角提出针对性的应对建议,为推进更高水平开放型经济新体制和贸易强国建设提供策略支持。Facing a complex external environment,China's foreign trade structure and growth drivers are undergoing accelerated adjustments,accompanied by both opportunities and risks.Understanding the structural transformation and energy shift that China's foreign trade is currently experiencing,and adjusting trade development strategies accordingly,has become crucial for building new systems for a higher-standard open economy and accelerating China's transformation into a trader of quality.This article focuses on the new patterns,new drivers,and new risks of China's foreign trade development,outlining four significant structural transformations in Chinese trade in goods related to product structure,regional trade layout,international market distribution,and participation in international division of labor.It analyzes the development trends and structural characteristics of new drivers such as intermediate goods trade,service trade,cross-border e-commerce,and green trade.Finally,based on an assessment of new risks in foreign trade,it offers targeted recommendations from both domestic and international perspectives,providing strategic support for building new systems for a higher-standard open economy and accelerating China's transformation into a trader of quality.

关 键 词：外贸发展 结构转型 外贸新动能 贸易风险 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]