未来产业创新发展路径探究:以量子计算为例  

Research on Innovative Development Pathways of the Future-oriented Industries:Taking Quantum Computation as an Example

作　　者：曹善文 江红玲 安邦 Cao Shanwen;Jiang Hongling;An Bang(China Electronics Technology Development Planning and Research Institute Co.,Ltd,Beijing,100043)

机构地区：[1]中电科发展规划研究院,北京100043

出　　处：《科技智囊》2025年第3期27-35,共9页Think Tank of Science & Technology

摘　　要：[研究目的]以量子计算为代表的未来产业是发展新质生产力的产业载体,但未来产业原始技术创新强、资金投入需求大、产业化周期长,同时受“逆全球化”与经济周期波动影响,其发展面临的风险和不确定性日益增强。新形势新要求下深入分析未来产业现状及问题对于推动未来产业高质量发展具有一定现实意义。[研究方法]采用案例分析法,选取量子计算作为未来产业的典型代表,分析我国量子计算发展现状与特征,进而总结提炼未来产业发展面临的共性问题,从创新生态视角与多链融合角度出发提出相应发展建议。[研究结论]我国量子计算技术瓶颈不断突破、产业基础不断完善、发展势能不断增强,部分领域已具备国际领先水平,但在外部竞争加剧的形势下,以量子计算为代表的未来产业发展面临技术交流合作受阻、财政开支压力加大、私人投资积极性不足等问题。立足国家竞争视角,应注重创新生态与多链协同,加强政产学研融同向发力,促进创新要素高效流动与资源高效配置,更好发挥宏观政策效力、激发微观主体活力,加快实现科技自立自强与产业自给自足,推动未来产业高质量发展。[Research purpose]The future-oriented industries represented by quantum computation is an industrial carrier for developing new quality productive forces.However,future-oriented industries are characterized by strong original technological innovation,substantial demand for capital investment,and a long industrialization cycle.At the same time,influenced by“deglobalization”and fluctuations in the economic cycle,the risks and uncertainties are increasingly intensifying.Under the new situation and requirements,in-depth analysis of the current situation and problems has certain practical significance for promoting high-quality development of future-oriented industries.[Research method]By using case analysis,quantum computation is selected as a typical representative of the future-oriented industries.Though the analysis of the status quo and characteristics of quantum computation,common problems faced by China’s future-oriented industries are summarized and extracted,and suggestions are proposed from the perspective of innovation ecology and multichain integration.[Research conclusion]The bottleneck of quantum computation technology is constantly breaking through,the industrial foundation is constantly improving,and the development potential is constantly increasing.Some fields have already reached the international leading level.However,under the situation of intensified external competition,the future-oriented industries represented by quantum computation is facing problems such as hindered technology exchange and cooperation,increased financial expenditure pressure,and insufficient private investment enthusiasm.From the perspective of national competition,it should focus on innovation ecology and multichain integration,strengthening the government-industry-university-research integration,promoting efficient flow of innovation factors and efficient allocation of resources,better exerting the effectiveness of macropolicies,stimulating the vitality of micro entities,and accelerating the realization of sci-tech s

关 键 词：未来产业 量子计算 创新生态 新质生产力 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]