台风“贝碧嘉”影响下的砀山县大暴雨过程分析  

Process analysis of heavy rain in Dangshan County under the influence of typhoon“Bebinca”

作　　者：张欣然 ZHANG Xinran(Dangshan Meteorological Bureau,Dangshan 235300,China)

机构地区：[1]砀山县气象局,安徽砀山235300

出　　处：《安徽农学通报》2025年第7期108-112,共5页Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin

摘　　要：为提高安徽砀山县台风暴雨预报能力,降低气象灾害对农业生产带来的经济损失,本文利用地面自动站降水资料、气象信息综合分析处理系统(MICAPS)高空实况资料、多普勒天气雷达资料以及数值预报资料等,对2024年9月17—18日台风“贝碧嘉”影响下的大暴雨天气实况、大气环流背景及天气形势、单站探空和物理量场、雷达回波演变特征、数值预报检验等进行分析。结果表明,此次台风暴雨过程的主要影响因素是台风倒槽,辐合明显;台风移动缓慢,维持时间较长,东部水汽输送通道维持,水汽条件好等。温度特征、水汽条件、风场特征、稳定度指标等均有利于此次台风暴雨的发生。雷达回波中组合反射率因子的大小对气象部门及时发布预警信息具有重要的指示意义,为防灾减灾提供重要依据。在各个数值预报中,EC模式对此次台风“贝碧嘉”的路径预报和降水预报准确率较高,其预报的台风路径、降水落区和降水量级更接近实况。本文为相关地区提供更精准的台风气象预报服务提供参考。To improve the typhoon rainstorm forecasting ability and reduce the economic loss caused by meteorological disasters in Dangshan County,Anhui Province,the precipitation data of ground automatic station,MICAPS aerial reality data,Doppler weather radar data and numerical forecasting data were used.The weather situation,atmospheric circulation background and weather situation,single-station sounding and physical field,radar echo evolution characteristics,numerical prediction test of the heavy rain process under the influence of typhoon“Bebinca”on September 17-18,2024 were analyzed.The results showed that the main influencing factor of the typhoon rainstorm process was the typhoon trough,and the convergence was obvious;the typhoon moved slowly and maintained for a long time.The eastern water vapor transport channel was maintained and the water vapor conditions were good.Temperature characteristics,water vapor conditions,wind field characteristics and stability indexes were all conducive to the occurrence of the typhoon rainstorm.The size of the combined reflectivity factor in the radar echo had important indicative significance for the meteorological department to issue early warning information in time,and provided an important basis for disaster prevention and reduction.In each numerical forecast,the EC model had a higher accuracy for the track forecast and precipitation forecast of the typhoon“Bebinca”,and its forecast typhoon track,precipitation falling area and precipitation level were closer to the real situation.This paper provides a reference for providing more accurate typhoon forecast service in relevant areas.

关 键 词：台风“贝碧嘉” 大暴雨 天气实况 雷达回波 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]