促进还是抑制:数字金融对农村商业银行风险承担的影响  

Promote or inhibit:The impact of digital finance on risksof rural commercial banks

作　　者：牛丽娟 徐艳红 NIU Lijuan;XU Yanhong(School of Finance,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学金融学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报(社会科学)》2025年第3期105-117,共13页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Social Science)

基　　金：甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目“乡村振兴背景下数字化赋能甘肃省城乡融合发展的机制与路径研究”(2023YB028)。

摘　　要：防范化解农村金融风险对推进我国金融高质量发展意义重大。数字金融的快速发展革新了传统银行的运营和管理模式,为农村金融机构提升风险管理水平提供了新思路。以2014—2022年我国79家农村商业银行为研究对象,通过构建面板回归模型,分析数字金融对农村商业银行风险承担的影响及作用机制。研究发现:数字金融对农村商业银行的风险承担具有显著的抑制作用,且这种影响在小规模农村商业银行和东部地区的农村商业银行中更为明显。机制分析表明:数字金融能够通过提高农村商业银行的创新能力和盈利能力来降低其风险承担。调节效应分析发现:宽松的货币政策强化了数字金融对农村商业银行风险承担的抑制效果。因此,在数字金融推动下,农村商业银行应持续加大数字技术的投入与使用力度,不断提升数字化水平,增强风险应对能力。Preventing and resolving rural financial risks is of great significance in promoting the high-quality development of finance in China,and the rapid development of digital finance has revolutionized the operation and management mode of traditional banks,providing ideas for improving the risk management level of rural financial institutions.The article takes 79 rural commercial banks in China from 2014 to 2022 as the research object,and analyzes the impact and mechanism of digital finance on the risk taking of rural commercial banks by constructing a panel regression model.The study finds that digital finance has a significant inhibitory effect on the risk taking of rural commercial banks,and this effect is more obvious in small rural commercial banks and rural commercial banks in the eastern region;the mechanism analysis shows that digital finance can reduce the risk taking of rural commercial banks by improving their innovation ability and profitability;the moderating effect analysis shows that loose monetary policy strengthens the inhibitory effect of digital finance on the risk taking of rural commercial banks.The analysis of the moderating effect shows that a loose monetary policy strengthens the inhibiting effect of digital finance on the risk-taking of rural commercial banks.Therefore,under the impetus of digital finance,rural commercial banks should continue to increase investment and use of digital technology,continuously improve the level of digitalization,and enhance their ability to cope with risks.

关 键 词：数字金融 农村商业银行 风险承担 创新能力 盈利能力 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F49