基于统计数据的我国水资源承载力研究  

Water Resources Carrying Capacity in China:A Statistical Analysis

作　　者：黄晓家 单聪 卢金锁[1] 曹薇 袁辉武 HUANG Xiao‑jia;SHAN Cong;LU Jin‑suo;CAO Wei;YUAN Hui‑wu(School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China;China IPPR International Engineering Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学环境与市政工程学院,陕西西安710055 [2]中国中元国际工程有限公司,北京100089

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2025年第6期1-8,共8页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：中国机械工业集团有限公司重大科技专项(ZDZX2022-4)。

摘　　要：通过食品消耗的水资源量以及工业和生活等用水量,论证了我国人均基础水资源量及缺水程度等级。目前,我国总体水资源开发强度低于30%的临界强度值,但“三北”地区的水资源开发强度远大于30%,属于严重缺水,局部地区极度缺水。经研究,提出了适合我国国情的水资源缺水程度分级和水资源承载力分级,研究分析了我国各省级行政区的人均统计水资源及用水量、水资源开发利用率等数据,并与世界不同国家相比较,明确了水资源不足的原因。同时,论证了人均基础水资源量500 m^(3)/(人·a)的合理性,并据此进行了水资源承载力的计算。计算结果表明,按我国统计的水资源量计,水资源承载力可达16亿人,若按宜居条件的水资源密度等计算,则适宜人口数为10亿人。该结果为各省级行政区的水资源承载力研究提供了依据统计数据的新方向。This study demonstrates the per capita basic water resources and the level of water shortage in China based on the consumption of water resources by food,industrial,and domestic sectors.While the overall development intensity of water resources in China is below the critical threshold of 30%,the development intensity of water resource in the“Northwest,North and Northeast China”regions exceeds 30%,leading to severe water shortage,and some areas are extreme water shortages.This paper proposes a classification of water shortage degree and water resources carrying capacity suitable to China’s national conditions,and analyzes per capita statistics of water resources and water consumption,as well as development and utilization rates across China’s provincial administrative regions,comparing these data with global figures to elucidate the causes of water resource shortages.It validates the rationality of per capita basic water resources threshold of 500 m^(3)/(cap·a)and calculates the corresponding water resources carrying capacity.Based on these statistics,China’s water resources carrying capacity is estimated to support 1.6 billion people,with a suitable population of 1 billion based on livable water resource density conditions.This research sets a direction for utilizing statistical data in studying of water resources carrying capacity of provincial administrative regions.

关 键 词：承载力 水资源 统计数据 粮食 

分 类 号：TU99[建筑科学—市政工程]