基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC模型的耕地撂荒致因研究——以山西省长治市黎城县为例  

Study on the causes of cultivated land abandonment based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC model:A case study of Licheng County,Changzhi City,Shanxi Province

作　　者：赵慧蓉 殷海善 ZHAO Hui-rong;YIN Hai-shan(College of Resources and Environment,Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu 030801,Shanxi,China;College of Agricultural Economics and Management,Shanxi Agricultural University,Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学资源环境学院,山西太谷030801 [2]山西农业大学农业经济管理学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2025年第3期216-223,231,共9页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：山西省社科联2021年度重点课题(SSKLZDKT2021043)。

摘　　要：以山西省长治市黎城县为例,基于文献研究、实地调查与专家访谈方法从自然、经济、人口、生产4个方面提出了耕地撂荒的影响因素,采用DEMATEL-MICMAC-ISM模型对影响因素进行相关性、重要性、层级结构分析及驱动力-依赖性分析。结果表明,15个耕地撂荒影响因素划分为3个集合,共6层,分别为直接因素(L1)、中间因素(L2、L3、L4、L5)、深层因素(L6)。运用MICMAC模型计算各因素的依赖性值和驱动力值,将驱动因素分为联系型因素、独立型因素、自治型因素、依赖型因素4类。耕地撂荒的关键影响因素为地形坡度、海拔、本底值、农林水事务支出、农业机械总动力、区位条件、耕作便捷度、水源距离。Taking Licheng County,Changzhi City,Shanxi Province as an example,this study proposed influencing factors of cultivat-ed land abandonment from four aspects:natural conditions,economy,population,and production,based on literature review,field surveys,and expert interviews.The DEMATEL-MICMAC-ISM model was employed to analyze the correlations,importance,hierar-chical structure,and driving force-dependency relationships of these factors.The results showed that the 15 influencing factors of cul-tivated land abandonment were divided into 3 clusters across 6 levels:Direct factors(L1),intermediate factors(L2,L3,L4,L5),and deep factors(L6).Using the MICMAC model,the dependency and driving force values of each factor were calculated,and the driving factors were categorized into four types:linked factors,independent factors,autonomous factors,and dependent factors.Key factors influencing cultivated land abandonment included terrain slope,elevation,background value,expenditure on agriculture,for-estry,and water affairs,total agricultural machinery power,location conditions,tillage convenience,and distance to water sources.

关 键 词：耕地利用 耕地撂荒 DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC模型 山西省长治市黎城县 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]