山东对RCEP国家农产品出口贸易潜力分析  

Analysis of export potential of agricultural products between Shandong and RCEP countries

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作  者:谢永超 孟艳春 王梦雪 丁卓智 郑丹[2] XIE Yong-chao;MENG Yan-chun;WANG Meng-xue;DING Zhuo-zhi;ZHENG Dan(College of Economics and Management(College of Cooperative;Bathurst Future Agri-Tech Institute,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,Shandong,China;Institute of Advanced Agricultural Sciences,Peking University,Weifang 261000,Shandong,China)

机构地区:[1]青岛农业大学经济管理学院(合作社学院),山东青岛266109 [2]青岛农业大学巴瑟斯未来农业科技学院,山东青岛266109 [3]北京大学现代农业研究院,山东潍坊261000

出  处:《湖北农业科学》2025年第3期224-231,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基  金:农业部软科学研究项目(20190515);青岛农业大学教研重点建设项目(71117001)。

摘  要:选取2007—2021年山东省对RCEP国家农产品出口贸易数据,分析山东省与RCEP国家农产品出口贸易的关系,利用拓展贸易引力模型进行实证分析。结果表明,RCEP成员国的经济规模(GDP)、人口规模、对外开放水平促进了山东省农产品的出口,而成员国与山东省的相对距离、农业就业占比、是否为发达经济体、是否有共同经贸组织对山东省农产品出口有抑制作用;山东省对RCEP国家农产品出口贸易潜力平均表现为贸易开拓型,柬埔寨、老挝、泰国、越南的贸易潜力系数下降明显,已经由潜力再造型转变成潜力巨大型,日本、韩国、澳大利亚、文莱、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡等国家表现为潜力开拓型,缅甸表现为潜力再造型。基于此,提出以下建议:充分重视RCEP协议的签订,稳定出口增速;重点优化农产品出口结构,壮大特色优势产业;充分挖掘出口贸易潜力,开拓出口市场空间;做好RCEP衔接、服务工作。The relationship between Shandong Province and RCEP agricultural products export trade from 2007 to 2021 was analyzed by selecting the data of Shandong Province and RCEP agricultural products export trade,and the empirical analysis was carried out by using the expansion trade gravity model.The results showed that the economic size(GDP),population size and opening-up level of RCEP member countries promoted the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province,while the relative distance between RCEP member countries and Shandong Province,the proportion of agricultural employment,whether they were developed economies and whether there were common economic and trade organizations had inhibitory effects on the export of agricultural products in Shandong Province;the average trade potential of Shandong Province’s agricultural products to RCEP countries showed pioneering trade,while the trade potential coefficient of Cambodia,Laos,Thailand and Vietnam had decreased significantly,and had been transformed from potential re-shaping to great potential.Japan,South Korea,Australia,Brunei,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore and other coun⁃tries showed pioneering potential.Myanmar showed potential for re-shaping.Based on this,the following suggestions were put for⁃ward:Pay full attention to the signing of the RCEP agreement and stabilize the export growth rate;focus on optimizing the export struc⁃ture of agricultural products,and strengthen the characteristic and advantageous industries;fully tap the potential of export trade and open up export market space;do a good job in connecting and providing services to RCEP.

关 键 词:RCEP国家 农产品出口 引力模型 贸易潜力 山东省 

分 类 号:F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62

 

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