高比例新能源电力系统风电低出力事件多维度评估与分布特性分析  

Multidimensional Assessment and Distributional Characteristics of Low-wind-power Events in High Proportion Renewable Energy Power Systems

作　　者：畅广辉 单瑞卿 李翔硕 薛盖超 马瑞杰 苏盛[3] 吴坡 阮冲 CHANG Guanghui;SHAN Ruiqing;LI Xiangshuo;XUE Gaichao;MA Ruijie;SU Sheng;WU Po;RUAN Chong(State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450000,Henan Province,China;Dispatching Control Center,State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450000,Henan Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention&Reduction for Power Grid(Changsha University of Science&Technology),Changsha 410114,Hunan Province,China;State Grid Henan Electric Power Research Institute,Zhengzhou 450052,Henan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]国网河南省电力有限公司,河南省郑州市450000 [2]国网河南省电力公司调度控制中心,河南省郑州市450000 [3]电网防灾减灾全国重点实验室(长沙理工大学),湖南省长沙市410114 [4]国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,河南省郑州市450052

出　　处：《电网技术》2025年第4期1369-1378,共10页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51777015);国网河南省电力有限公司科技项目(SGHADKOODWJS2400493)。

摘　　要：高比例新能源接入电力系统中,大面积静风和低风速导致风电出力显著低于预期造成的风电低出力事件,对电力系统电力电量平衡带来了重大挑战。由于高比例风电接入时间较短,历史数据尚未覆盖各种复杂气象场景,难以形成对风电低出力的深入认知。文章提出一种基于气象数据反演的低风力事件评估方法,从低出力强度、持续时间等多个维度分析其年内、年际、极值等分布特征。方法首先结合1979—2023年再分析气象数据反演历史小时尺度区域风电出力序列,接着采用滑动平均检测法识别低出力事件,分析其年内、年际统计分布特性和长时间尺度上的变化趋势,最后提出了低出力事件“多年一遇”重现期水平指标。研究结果可为高比例新能源接入电力系统灵活性规划提供支撑。In power systems with a high penetration of renewable energy,large-scale calm and low wind speeds that lead to wind power output significantly falling below expectations result in Low-Wind-Power(LWP)events,posing significant challenges to the power balance of the system.Due to the relatively short period of high wind power penetration,historical data records have not yet encompassed various complex meteorological scenarios,making it difficult to gain an in-depth understanding of LWP events.This paper proposes a low wind power event assessment method based on meteorological data inversion,analyzing the interannual,intra-annual,and extreme value distributions of these events from multiple dimensions,such as low output intensity and duration.The method first utilizes reanalysis meteorological data from 1979 to 2023 to invert hourly regional historical wind power output sequences.Then,a moving average detection method is applied to identify LWP events and analyze their interannual and intra-annual statistical distribution characteristics as well as long-term trends.Finally,a“return period”indicator is proposed to quantify the recurrence interval of LWP events.The research provides support for flexibility planning in power systems with high renewable energy penetration.

关 键 词：风力发电 风电低出力事件 欧洲天气预报中心再分析气象数据 高比例新能源电力系统 电力电量平衡 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]