风险治理情境下城市复杂系统韧性升级何以可能?——一个新的理论分析框架  

How Is It Possible to Upgrade the Resilience of Complex Systems of City in the Context of Risk Governance?:An Innovative Analytical Framework

作　　者：郝雅立 宋沂霏 HAO Yali;SONG Yifei

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学公共管理学院,天津300134 [2]华东政法大学政府管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2025年第3期1-8,共8页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目“总体国家安全视角下天津基层应急风险管控力提升路径研究”(TJGLQN24-013)。

摘　　要：韧性系统的构建与升级是应对复合型风险治理多重挑战的现实之需。借鉴免疫系统的异己作用、态势生成与功能运行的反应机理,类比性植入城市场景中,以免疫系统内外部异己为参考,切分城市复杂系统风险源的不同类型,参照免疫系统应对异己的响应过程,解析城市复杂系统应对风险灾害的反应过程。结合城市燃气管网系统实例,提出城市复杂系统免疫反应可分为平衡态、亚平衡态、突变态和失衡态四种状态,分析动态演变呈现出的恢复平衡、平行落后、负向落后和超越平衡四种趋势,基于免疫监视、防御、自稳与学习机制,探索不同发展趋势的生成逻辑及具体成因。免疫系统的运行逻辑与实践经验为探究城市复杂系统如何趋于稳定、可控及如何进行功能重建提供理论视角,也为风险治理实践情境下城市复杂系统实现韧性治理描绘了更为适配的升级转型图景。应转换韧性治理思路,在可控原则下构建化解城市复杂系统风险的差异化路径。Resilience system construction and upgrading are practical needs to address multiple challenges of complicated risk governance.The response mechanism of immune system including aliasing,situation generation and functioning is useful,which can be analogically implanted into the analysis of complex systems.Reference to internal and external aliens of the immune system,risk sources of city complex systems can be divided into different types.And the response process to alien,the city systems response process to risk are thoroughly deconstructed and analyzed.Combined with urban gas pipeline network system,four dynamic evolution states in the immune response process are proposed,and extension trends and formation reasons are analyzed.The immune system's operation logic and practical experience not only serve as a theoretical perspective for exploring how complex systems to be stable and controllable and to rebuild their functions,but also depict a more suitable upgrade and transformation picture to achieve resilient governance in risk governance.It's necessary to shift the thinking of resilient governance to construct a differentiated path of complex system risk mitigation under of controllable principle.

关 键 词：城市复杂系统 韧性治理 免疫状态 动态演变 差异化趋势 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]