“双碳”背景下我国优势奶产区碳排放测算及其发展趋势分析  

Carbon Emission Calculation and Trend Analysis of China's Dominant Dairy Production Areas under the“Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goal”

作　　者：刘七军 刘玉娜 李昭楠 Liu Qijun;Liu Yuna;Li Zhaonan

机构地区：[1]北方民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国社会科学院大学学报》2025年第2期44-66,152,153,共25页Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目“共同富裕目标下西北民族地区巩固移民脱贫成果的多元协同机制与政策研究”(23XMZ001);宁夏回族自治区哲学社会科学规划项目“过渡期结束后宁夏脱贫地区帮扶政策优化调整研究”(24NXBYJ02);宁夏回族自治区教育厅高等学校科学研究项目“宁夏加快建设乡村全面振兴样板区对策研究”(NYG2024098)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：畜禽养殖业是碳排放大户,其中奶产业的“贡献”尤为显著,故有必要对奶产业碳排放进行测算与分析。本文以2005—2021年华北、东北、西北优势奶产区为研究对象,采用生命周期法测算其碳排放量,通过环境库兹涅茨曲线判断其碳排放趋势,并在此基础上使用ARIMA模型对其未来碳排放量进行预测。结果表明,在研究期内优势奶产区的奶产业碳排放总量波动较大,碳排放主要源自种养活动和动物胃肠发酵等过程,并且碳排放量的区域分布空间差异明显。在碳排放趋势方面,仅有内蒙古越过碳排放最高点,其他地区的碳排放量均呈上升趋势,但华北、东北大部分地区距离第二拐点较近,碳排放量增速放缓,从长远看将越过第二拐点呈下降趋势,西北地区距离第二拐点相对较远,处于碳排放量的上升期。未来,华北、东北地区的奶产业碳排放量总体呈下降态势,西北地区的奶产业碳排放量则呈上升态势。The livestock and poultry breeding industry is a major carbon emitter.The dairy industry contribute significantly to these emissions,making it necessary to calculate and analyze the carbon emissions of this industry.This article focuses on the dairy industry in the leading areas of North China,Northeast China,and Northwest China from 2005 to 2021.Using the life cycle method,we calculate their carbon emissions and analyze trends through the environmental Kuznets curve.Finally,the ARIMA model is employed to predict the carbon emissions for the next decade.The results indicate that the total carbon emissions from the dairy industry in the dominant dairy production areas fluctuated significantly during the research period,with the main sources of carbon emissions coming from greenhouse gases generated during breeding activities and animal gastrointestinal fermentation.The regional distribution of carbon emissions varied significantly.In terms of carbon emission trends,only Inner Mongolia has surpassed the highest carbon emission point,while carbon emissions in other regions have shown an upward trend.However,most areas in North China and Northeast China are relatively close to the second turning point,and their growth rate is slowing down.In the long run,these regions are expected to cross the second turning point and show a downward trend.The Northwest region is relatively far from the second turning point and is in an upward trend in the long run.In the future,the overall carbon emissions of the dairy industry in North China and Northeast China are expected to show a downward trend,while the carbon emissions in Northwest China will show an upward trend.

关 键 词：奶产业 碳排放 生命周期法 环境库兹涅茨曲线 

分 类 号：F323.22[经济管理—产业经济]