1990至2021年中国先天性心脏病负担变化趋势及预测研究  

Change trend and prediction of congenital heart disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021

作　　者：白子豪 王皓 安佳 王强 王洋 莫绪明[1] Bai Zihao;Wang Hao;An Jia;Wang Qiang;Wang Yang;Mo Xuming(Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery,Nanjing Children’s Hospital,Clinical Teaching Hospital of Medical School,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210000,China;Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery,Children’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学医学院教学医院南京市儿童医院心胸外科,南京210000 [2]南京医科大学附属儿童医院心胸外科,南京210000

出　　处：《中华胸心血管外科杂志》2025年第3期156-162,共7页Chinese Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(82270310);江苏省重点研发计划(BE2023662)。

摘　　要：目的总结并评价1990至2021年中国及全球先天性心脏病(先心病)的疾病负担时间趋势,并预测至2035年的疾病负担。方法运用Joinpoint回归方法研究先心病疾病的时间趋势,同时使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(Bayesian age-period-cohort,BAPC)方法预测了2022至2035年中国及全球先心病所带来的疾病负担的变化。结果1990至2021年,中国及全球的先心病伤残调整寿命年和死亡负担均有降低。尽管男性疾病负担高于女性,但差异正在逐渐减少。BAPC估计,2022至2035年,中国以及全球的先心病负担预期仍会下降,但先心病依旧是主要的健康问题。中国在减轻先心病负担上已取得明显的成果,这反映了医学技术的快速进步和公共卫生政策的改进带来的正面影响。结论尽管先心病在过去30年间及未来至2035年仍将是重要的疾病负担,关注疾病特异性差异以制订更精准的干预措施,进一步降低先心病的负担,提高患者的生存质量和生活水平,仍是关键。ObjectiveTo summarize and evaluate the temporal trends of the burden of congenital heart disease(CHD)in China and globally from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the burden of the disease up to 2035.MethodsThe Joinpoint regression method was used to study the time trend of congenital heart disease,and the Bayesian age-period-cohort method(BAPC)was used to predict the change in disease burden due to congenital heart disease in China and globally between 2022 and 2035.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021,the disability-adjusted life years and mortality burdens of congenital heart disease have decreased in China and globally.Although the disease burden is higher in men than in women,the difference is gradually decreasing.BAPC estimates that the burden of congenital heart disease is expected to continue to decline in China and globally in 2022-2035,but congenital heart disease remains a major health problem.China has made remarkable progress in reducing the burden of congenital heart disease,which reflects the positive impact of rapid advances in medical technology and improved public health policies.ConclusionAlthough congenital heart disease will remain a significant disease burden over the past three decades and into 2035,it is critical to focus on disease-specific differences to develop more targeted interventions to further reduce the disease burden of congenital heart disease and improve the quality of life and living standards of patients.

关 键 词：先天性心脏病 疾病负担 伤残调整寿命年 流行病学 趋势 

分 类 号：R54[医药卫生—心血管疾病]