“美国优先”:特朗普第二任期美台安全关系走向刍议  

Implication of“America First”for the Outlook of U.S.-Taiwan Security Relations in Trump's Second Term

作　　者：信强[1] 刁国轩 Xin Qiang;Diao Guoxuan

机构地区：[1]复旦大学美国研究中心 [2]南京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《台湾研究》2025年第1期9-19,共11页Taiwan Studies

摘　　要：特朗普第二任期的台海政策将秉持以当代“杰克逊现实主义”为内核的“美国优先”原则,遵循外交服务于内政及“以实力求和平”的政策逻辑,利用台湾问题遏制中国。美台军事安全勾连必会随着美推行“以台制华”战略而增强,且具有突出的交易性与议题联动的特征。特朗普反复无常的决策风格、执政团队内的立场差异、国会亲台议员的干扰寻衅,以及赖清德当局“倚美”与岛内民众“疑美”之争,则将影响美涉台决策的制定和执行,使特朗普第二任期内美台军事安全关系更具波动性与不确定性。Driven by the vision of“America First”,Trump's Taiwan Strait policy during his second term will be characterized by strong populist conservatism of contemporary“Jacksonian Realism,”following the principle of“diplomacy serves domestic affairs”and“peace through strength”,and leveraging the Taiwan question as a strategic tool to contain China.The security cooperation between the U.S.and Taiwan authority is bound to escalate,while featuring prominent transactional dynamics and issuelinkage tactics.Additionally,Trump's capricious personality,divergence of policy stances within the administration,interference and provocation by the Congress,as well as the contradictions between the DPP authorities'relies on and the taiwan region public suspicions toward the U.S.will also have multiple impacts on the formulation and implementation of U.S.Taiwan policy,making the prospects of U.S.-Taiwan security relations during Trump's second term more volatile and uncertain.

关 键 词：美国优先 美国台海政策 中美战略竞争 美台军事安全关系 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]