基于改进FAHP的220kV变电站EPC总承包项目风险管理研究  

Research on Risk Management of EPC General Contracting Project for 220 kV Substation Based on Improved FAHP

作　　者：常加辰 CHANG Jiachen(Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250013,China)

机构地区：[1]山东电力工程咨询院有限公司,山东济南250013

出　　处：《电工技术》2025年第5期64-68,共5页Electric Engineering

摘　　要：目前220 kV变电站大多提倡采用EPC总承包进行承建,但EPC总承包存在交叉界面多,极易出现各种项目风险,因此对其展开研究。首先,通过分析EPC总承包项目风险管理指标,建立科学的项目管理风险指标体系,分别从招投标、合同、设计、采购以及施工5个方面给予评价;然后,通过计算各指标的模糊层次分析法和熵权法对应的权重,得到拟合权重,进而确定评价体系5个程度的评价结果;最后,结合实际算例进行验证,证明所提模型能够有效量化EPC总承包项目管理风险,并给出参考性应对措施。At present,most 220 kV substations advocate the use of EPC general contracting for construction.Due to its many cross-interfaces,it is prone to various project risks.This article studies this.First,by analyzing the risk indicators of EPC general contracting project management,a scientific project management risk index system is established,and evaluation is given from the five aspects of bidding,contract,design,procurement,and construction,and then by calculating the weights corresponding to the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and entropy weighting method of each index,the fitting weights are obtained,and then the evaluation results of the five levels of the evaluation system are determined.Finally,it is verified based on actual examples to prove that the proposed model can effectively quantify the risks of EPC general contracting project management,and reference countermeasures are given.

关 键 词：变电站 项目管理风险 模糊层次分析法 熵权法 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]