1960~2019年中国不同干湿气候区地表干湿变化特征及其归因分析  

Variations in Surface Dry and Wet Climates across Different Regions of China and Its Attribution Analysis during 1960–2019

作　　者：徐金勤 肖潇 朱平 邱新法[2] XU Jinqin;XIAO Xiao;ZHU Ping;QIU Xinfa(Guangdong Meteorological Service Center,Guangzhou 510640;School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074)

机构地区：[1]广东省气象服务中心,广州510640 [2]南京信息工程大学生态与应用气象学院,南京210044 [3]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2025年第2期129-140,共12页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：广东省基础与应用基础研究基金青年基金项目,2023A1515110518;国家重点研发计划,2019YFB2102003;江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金,JKLAM2303;广东省气象局科学技术研究项目,GRMC2022M15。

摘　　要：基于湿润指数研究了1960~2019年我国四大干湿气候区的干湿状况变化特征,并结合偏微分方程法量化了主要气候因子变化对于湿润指数变化的具体贡献。结果表明:近60年来,我国干旱区整体上呈现显著变湿趋势,半干旱区和半湿润区的大部分地区呈现变干趋势,湿润区的大部分地区呈现变湿趋势。不同气候区干湿变化的主导驱动因子差异较大,降雨量的显著增加(贡献百分数为54.3%)主导了干旱区气候变湿,平均气温显著增加(贡献百分数为-35.4%)是半干旱区气候变干的主要贡献项,相对湿度和降雨量的减少(贡献百分数之和为-45.4%)是半湿润区变干的主要贡献项,降雨量的增加(贡献百分数为34.0%)和净辐射的减少(贡献百分数为31.2%)主导了湿润区气候变湿。值得注意的是,净辐射、平均气温和相对湿度等潜在蒸散量的影响因子在半干旱区和半湿润区对其干湿变化的贡献明显超过降雨量的贡献。The humidity index was selected to study changes in dry and wet climates across four major climate regions in China from 1960 to 2019.Using the partial differential equation method,the specific contributions of major climate factors to variations in the humidity index were quantified.In the past 60 years,among which different climate regions exhibited varied trends;namely,the arid region of China showed a significant trend toward humidification,most semi-arid and semi-humid regions exhibited a drying trend,and most humid regions became wetter.The dominant driving factors of dry and wet changes varied significantly across different climate regions.The significant increase in precipitation(accounting for 54.3%of the changes in dry and wet conditions)led to climate wetting in the arid region.Meanwhile,in the semi-arid region,the significant increase in average temperature(accounting for-35.4%of the changes in climatic conditions)dominated climate drying.In the semi-humid region,the decrease in precipitation and relative humidity(accounting for-45.4%)dominated the drying trend.The increase in precipitation(accounting for 34.0%)and the decrease in net radiation(accounting for 31.2%)led to climate humidification in the humid region.Furthermore,in semi-arid and sub-humid regions,factors related to potential evapotranspiration,such as net radiation,average temperature,and relative humidity,contributed more significantly to changes in dry and wet conditions than precipitation.

关 键 词：干湿气候变化 湿润指数 主导驱动因子 贡献分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]