引入阵风效应对沙尘暴数值模拟影响的定量评估试验  

Quantitative Evaluations of Introducing Gust Wind Effects into the Numerical Simulation of Sandstorms

作　　者：马辉 孙谊媊 傅慎明 常喜强 韩毅 李国庆 刘大贵 程瑜 MA Hui;SUN Yiqian;FU Shenming;CHANG Xiqiang;HAN Yi;LI Guoqing;LIU Dagui;CHENG Yu(Beijing Goldwind Smart Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100176;National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830002;China Electric Power Construction Northwest Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Xi'an 710065;Huaneng Clean Energy Research Institute,Beijing 102209)

机构地区：[1]北京金风慧能技术有限公司,北京100176 [2]地球系统数值模拟与应用全国重点实验室,北京100029 [3]国网新疆电力公司,乌鲁木齐830002 [4]中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,西安710065 [5]中国华能集团清洁能源技术研究院有限公司,北京102209

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2025年第2期168-186,共19页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目,2022YFB4202100。

摘　　要：在干旱区、半干旱区及其周边地带,沙尘暴是一种重要的灾害天气。对于电力设施而言,沙尘暴常常会造成污闪、高压打火和线路跳闸,对电网的安全稳定运行构成严重威胁。提高沙尘暴数值预报的精度可以有效地降低电网运行的风险,显著地提升电网应对沙尘天气的能力。本文基于一个之前已建立的中尺度沙尘预报系统,将阵风效应引入该系统的起沙方案(dust emission)中,从而使得起沙的物理过程更接近于我国北方的实际观测结果。为了评估引入阵风效应是否可以改善对沙尘暴的模拟,本文对东亚地区发生于2004年3月下旬的一次严重沙尘暴事件进行了数值模拟,并主要从3个方面对沙尘暴的预报结果进行了评估:(1)利用TOMS(Total Ozone Meteorological Satellite)气溶胶指数和台站观测(天气现象)评估了对沙尘暴水平范围的模拟,结果表明,本次沙尘暴事件中,除了小部分地区(塔里木盆地周边地区),引入阵风效应可以显著地提高对沙尘暴水平范围的预报精度,尤其是在我国的东北地区。(2)利用站点激光雷达观测数据评估了对沙尘暴垂直结构的模拟,结果表明,尽管沙尘暴的上边界高度存在高估现象,引入阵风效应有助于缓解对沙尘暴上边界高度的高估,并在一定程度上改善了对沙尘高浓度层位置的模拟。(3)利用多个地面站点观测的逐5分钟PM10(Particulate matter with particle size below 10 microns)浓度数据对沙尘暴随时间演变特征的模拟进行了定量评估,结果表明,在我国的大部分地区,引入阵风效应可以显著地提高对沙尘暴随时间演变的模拟精度。综合上述,对本次东亚地区的强沙尘暴事件而言,引入阵风效应可以显著地提升对沙尘暴多个关键属性的模拟水平。In arid and semiarid regions and their surrounding areas,sandstorms are a considerable weather-related disaster.Sandstorms often lead to pollution flashovers,high-voltage ignition,and line tripping,posing a serious threat to the safe and stable operation of the power grid.Enhancing the accuracy of numerical sandstorm forecasting can effectively reduce risks to power grid operations and considerably improve the resilience of the grid to sandstorm conditions.This study is based on a previously established mesoscale sand and dust prediction system.The simulation of the sand emission process becomes aligned with actual observational data from northern China by incorporating gust effects into the dust emission scheme of the system.To assess whether the inclusion of gust wind effects enhances sandstorm simulations,this study analyzed a severe sandstorm event that occurred in late March 2004.The evaluation focused on three aspects of the forecast results:first,the simulation of the horizontal extent of sandstorms was assessed using the TOMS(Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer)aerosol index and station observations of weather phenomena.The findings revealed that,except for a few areas near the Tarim basin,the introduction of gust effects considerably improved the prediction accuracy of the sandstorm’s horizontal extent,particularly in Northeast China.Second,the simulation of the vertical structure of sandstorms was assessed using LiDAR(Light Detection and Ranging)observation data from stations.The results indicated that,although an overestimation of the upper boundary height of the sandstorms was observed,introducing gust effects improved the accuracy of simulating the upper boundary height and the position of the high-concentration layer of sandstorms.Third,the simulated dust concentration was quantitatively evaluated using 5-min PM10 concentration data observed at multiple ground stations.The results demonstrated that,in most areas of China,incorporating gust effects considerably enhanced the simulation accuracy of the

关 键 词：沙尘暴 起沙 阵风 电网 数值预报 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]