屋顶光伏开发多主体决策演化与仿真  

Evolution and Simulation of Multi-agent Decision-making for Rooftop PV Development

作　　者：陈娟[1] 高江梅 李哲 鲁斌 CHEN Juan;GAO Jiangmei;LI Zhe;LU Bin(Department of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China;Sate Gird Tianjin Electric Power Company,Hebei District,Tianjin 300450,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Knowledge Computing for Energy&Power,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济管理系,河北省保定市071003 [2]国网天津市电力公司,天津市河北区300450 [3]河北省能源电力知识计算重点实验室,河北省保定市071003

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2025年第2期201-215,共15页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(HB19YJ011)。

摘　　要：以演化博弈模型为基础,考虑了屋顶光伏开发推进中户用、工商业和学校及政府机关不同屋顶光伏的主体收益关系,构建了演化博弈支付矩阵,选取华东地区五省一市,得到了各类光伏的主体最优投资决策,并对最优投资决策下的经济效益进行了分析。演化与仿真结果表明,受区域光照资源等资源禀赋差异的影响,投资决策和经济效益有所不同,区域应结合不同类型下的均衡情况因地制宜完善市场基础设施和市场机制,积极促进屋顶光伏开发的全面推进及可持续发展。Based on the evolutionary game model,this paper considers the main income relationship of household,industry and commerce,school and government roof photovoltaic,and constructs the evolutionary game payment matrix.Taking five provinces and one city in East China as an example,the main optimal investment decisions of various photovoltaic systems are obtained,and the economic benefits under the optimal investment decisions are analyzed.The results show that the investment decisions and economic benefits are different due to the regional differences such as light resources.All localities should improve the market infrastructure and market mechanism according to local conditions,and actively promote the realization of rooftop photovoltaic.

关 键 词：屋顶光伏 多主体 四维演化博弈 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]