普惠金融供给与流动人口迁入意愿  

Inclusive Finance Supplies and Migrants Inclination of Moving-in

作　　者：刘新波[1] 杨佳楷 刘轶芳[3] Liu Xinbo;Yang Jiakai;Liu Yifang

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院区域与城市经济研究所 [3]中央财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《财政科学》2025年第1期51-71,共21页Fiscal Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“绿色金融政策社会福利效应的统计测度研究”(项目编号:22BTJ014)。

摘　　要：本文基于推拉理论,利用全国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,实证研究普惠金融供给对流动人口迁入意愿的影响。研究发现,普惠金融供给显著增强流动人口迁入意愿,其中数字化普惠金融的积极效应相当突出,而传统普惠金融的推拉效应也不容忽视。从微观角度看,普惠金融供给主要影响低学历、非务工和农业户口群体;从宏观角度看,普惠金融供给是减弱区域间劳动力失衡的重要因素。微观机制分析表明,普惠金融供给能够增强居留意愿、改善劳动力市场表现并且纾解家庭困难,从而成为激励流动人口迁入的重要因素。基于以上分析,本文建议各地做好财政金融联动,促进普惠金融均衡发展,加大面向新市民的金融服务供给,保证流动人口平稳迁入。Based on the push-pull theory and using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS),this paper empirically investigates the impact of inclusive finance supplies on migrants'inclination of moving-in.The study finds that the inclusive finance supplies significantly enhance migrants'inclination of moving-in,with the positive effects of digital inclusive finance being particularly prominent,while the push-pull effects of traditional inclusive finance cannot be ignored.From a micro perspective,inclusive finance supplies mainly affects low educated,non-working,and agricultural hukou groups;From a macro perspective,it is an important factor in reducing regional labor imbalances.Microscopic mechanism analysis shows that inclusive finance supplies can enhance residency willingness,improve labor market outcomes,and alleviate family difficulties,thus it is an important incentive of migrant's moving-in.Cities should make fiscal and financial linkage,promote balanced development of inclusive finance,increase the supplies of financial service to new citizens,and ensure migrants'smooth moving-in.

关 键 词：推拉理论 普惠金融供给 流动人口 迁入意愿 财政金融联动 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]