科技金融政策、经济高质量发展与新质生产力——基于地市级微观数据的准自然实验证据  

Science and Technology Finance Policy,High-Quality Economic Development,and New Quality Productivity:Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Micro-Level Data of Prefecture-Level Cities

作　　者：胡超凡 陈柳钦 谢捷 Hu Chaofan;Chen Liuqin;Xie Jie(Beijing QinThink Tank Co.,LTD.,Beijing 100142,China)

机构地区：[1]北京钦点智库有限公司,北京100142

出　　处：《征信》2025年第2期69-81,共13页Credit Reference

摘　　要：基于2009年至2021年282个城市的数据,利用第一、二批“促进科技与金融结合试点”政策作为自然实验,构建了经济高质量发展指数和新质生产力指数。同时,采用多期双重差分倾向得分匹配法来系统评估这一政策对新质生产力的影响,并深入探讨了经济高质量发展的中介效应。研究表明,试点政策对新质生产力的提升作用显著,并且这种影响在空间上具有扩散性,随着时间的推移还表现出动态演化和持续增强的趋势。通过安慰剂检验和PSM-DID等稳健性测试,验证了该机制的可靠性。机制分析结果显示,经济高质量发展在政策赋能过程中扮演了重要中介角色。数字经济通过智能技术与数据赋能起到了正向调节效应。异质性分析表明,金融集聚、产业集聚和非资源型城市政策效应更加显著。根据各城市的特性,建议实施因地制宜的科技金融政策,推动数字经济与科技金融的深度融合,五位一体推动经济高质量发展。Based on the data of 282 cities from 2009 to 2021,this paper uses the first and second batch of“promoting the integration of science and technology and finance pilot”policies as a natural experiment to construct a high-quality economic development index and a new quality productivity index.At the same time,the multi-stage dual differential tendency score matching method is used to systematically evaluate the impact of this policy on the new quality productivity,and the intermediary effect of high-quality economic development is deeply discussed.The research shows that the pilot policy has a significant effect on the improvement of new quality productivity,and this effect is spatially diffused,and it also shows a dynamic evolution and continuous enhancement trend over time.Robustness tests such as placebo test and PSM-DID were used to verify the reliability of the mechanism.The results of mechanism analysis show that high-quality economic development plays an important intermediary role in the process of policy empowerment.The digital economy has played a positive regulating effect through intelligent technology and data empowerment.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of financial agglomeration,industrial agglomeration and non-resource-based city policies is more significant.In the light of the characteristics of each city,this paper proposes to implement science and technology financial policies according to local conditions,promote the deep integration of digital economy and science and technology finance,and promote high-quality economic development in five dimensions.

关 键 词：促进科技与金融结合试点 新质生产力 经济高质量发展 数字经济 空间溢出 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F120.2