复杂流域水资源系统风险多链路网络研究(Ⅰ):网络构建  

Research on risky multi-link networks for complex watershed water resources system(Ⅰ):network construction

作　　者：冯仲恺 高浩宇 牛文静 王煜[5] 彭少明 郑小康 FENG Zhongkai;GAO Haoyu;NIU Wenjing;WANG Yu;PENG Shaoming;ZHENG Xiaokang(State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Process in Watershed,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China;General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100120,China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学流域水土过程省高校重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [4]长江水利委员会长江水文局,湖北武汉430010 [5]水利部黄河水利委员会,河南郑州450003 [6]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120 [7]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水资源保护》2025年第2期1-11,共11页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300);国家自然科学基金项目(52379009,52441901);江苏省优秀青年基金项目(BK20240189);北京江河水利发展基金会水利青年科技英才项目(JHYC202310);湖北省自然科学基金三峡联合基金项目(2023AFD203);水灾害防御全国重点实验室自主研究项目(5240152E2)。

摘　　要：为探明水资源多维风险要素及其关联机制,统筹黄河流域气象、水文、社会经济、生态等多维要素,利用因果诊断、传递熵等方法,构建了黄河流域水资源系统风险多链路网络。运用度中心性、介数中心性、边介数、聚集系数等指标,解析了节点、边和网络特征信息,识别了重要关联要素及其链路。结果表明:黄河流域水资源系统自身具有社区结构特性,且与其所辖6个分区(除龙门-三门峡分区)的水资源系统均具有较高的聚集性和耦合性,不同关联要素之间具有较为密切的反馈关系,对应的复杂网络呈小世界特性;在不考虑水力联系要素(断面流量、水资源量、总降水量)时,温度、第三产业增加值等关联要素以及第三产业增加值→人口自然增长率等链路在水资源系统中发挥重要作用。To explore the multidimensional risk factors of water resources and their interrelationships,this study integrated meteorological,hydrological,socio-economic,and ecological factors in the Yellow River Basin.Using causal diagnosis,transfer entropy,and other methods,the risky multi-link network of water resource system in the Yellow River Basin was constructed.Metrics such as degree centrality,betweenness centrality,edge betweenness,and clustering coefficient were employed to analyze node,edge,and network characteristics,identifying key associated factors and their linkages.The results show that the water resources system of the Yellow River Basin exhibits community structure characteristics and demonstrates high clustering and coupling with the water resources systems of its six sub regions(except for the Longmen-Sanmenxia sub region).There are close feedback relationships among different associated factors,and the corresponding complex network exhibits small-world properties.When excluding hydraulic connection factors(section flow,water resource volume,and total precipitation),associated factors such as temperature and the added value of the tertiary industry,as well as linkages like“added value of the tertiary industry→natural population growth rate”,play significant roles in the water resources system.

关 键 词：水资源系统 风险多链路网络 因果诊断 复杂网络分析 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]