基于WEP模型的黄河水源涵养区水源涵养量动态评估与关键驱动因素解析  

Dynamic assessment of water conservation and analysis of key driving factors in the Yellow River water conservation area based on WEP model

作　　者：岁姚炳 牛存稳[1] 刘佳嘉[1] 贾仰文[1] 杜军凯[1] 郝春沣[1] SUI Yaobing;NIU Cunwen;LIU Jiajia;JIA Yangwen;DU Junkai;HAO Chunfeng(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《水资源保护》2025年第2期65-76,共12页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201105)。

摘　　要：基于WEP模型和水源涵养量评估公式,利用地理探测器和情景分析法识别了影响水源涵养的关键因素,并定量评估了气候变化和人类活动对黄河水源涵养区水源涵养的影响。结果表明:黄河水源涵养区多年平均水源涵养量为140 mm,其中兰州以上地区水源涵养量持续增加,而渭河南山支流和伊洛河流域水源涵养量持续减少;水源涵养量高值区主要分布在祁连山区、黄河源区南部、渭河南山支流中段及伊洛河流域上游;降水量是影响研究区水源涵养量的主导因素,气温、相对湿度、地形、蒸散发等因素亦显著影响其分布,且各因素之间存在协同作用;在河湖源头及高原山区,气候变化是影响水源涵养的主导因素,而在人为干扰强度大的地区,特别是中心城区,水源涵养则主要受人类活动影响。Based on the WEP model and the water conservation capacity assessment formula,geographic detectors and scenario analysis were used to identify key factors influencing water conservation.The impacts of climate change and human activities on water conservation in the Yellow River water conservation area were quantitatively evaluated.The results show that the multi-year average water conservation capacity in the Yellow River water conservation area is 140 mm.The water conservation capacity in the region above Lanzhou has continued to increase,while it has consistently decreased in the southern tributaries of the Wei River and the Yiluo River Basin.High-value areas of water conservation are mainly distributed in the Qilian Mountains,the southern part of the Yellow River source region,the middle reaches of the southern tributaries of the Wei River,and the upper reaches of the Yiluo River Basin.Precipitation is the dominant factor affecting water conservation in the study area,while temperature,relative humidity,topography,and evapotranspiration also significantly influence its distribution,with synergistic effects among these factors.In the headwaters of rivers and lakes and in plateau mountain regions,climate change is the dominant factor affecting water conservation.In areas with intense human interference,particularly in central urban areas,water conservation is primarily influenced by human activities.

关 键 词：WEP模型 水源涵养 地理探测器 气候变化 人类活动 黄河水源涵养区 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] X171.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]