洪水预报的比例系数系统响应误差修正方法  

Proportional coefficient system response error correction method for flood forecasting

作　　者：瞿思敏[1] 陆威村 蒋思军 陈辉 石朋[1] 虞鸿 张锏 QU Simin;LU Weicun;JIANG Sijun;CHEN Hui;SHI Peng;YU Hong;ZHANG Jian(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Changtan Reservoir Affairs Center,Taizhou 318020,China;Shaoxing Tangpu Reservoir Co.,Ltd.,Shaoxing 312000,China;Zhejiang Design Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hangzhou 310002,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]长潭水库事务中心,浙江台州318020 [3]绍兴市汤浦水库有限公司,浙江绍兴312000 [4]浙江省水利水电勘测设计院有限责任公司,浙江杭州310002

出　　处：《水资源保护》2025年第2期88-94,105,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3211400);国家自然科学基金项目(52179011,U2243229)。

摘　　要：针对系统微分响应误差修正方法在水文预报中同时修正多个变量出现的信息不足的问题,考虑各变量误差在不同时段对洪水预报精度的影响,提出了比例系数系统响应误差修正方法。以同时修正新安江模型各雨量单元降水量为例,分别采用湿润区(长诏水库流域)的理想模型和半干旱半湿润区(日照水库流域)的实际流域进行了检验。结果表明:经过误差修正,湿润区理想模型和半干旱半湿润区实际流域在次洪流量模拟中的平均纳什效率系数分别从0.906和0.573提升至0.994和0.809,比例系数系统响应误差修正方法修正效果明显,具有跨气候区的强适应性。In response to the problem of insufficient information when using the system differential response error correction method to correct multiple variables simultaneously,a proportional coefficient system response error correction method was proposed based on considering the influences of each variable error on the accuracy of flood forecasting in different durations.Taking the simultaneous correction of the rainfall across rainfall units in the Xin’anjiang model as an example,an ideal model in a humid region(the Changzhao Reservoir Basin)and an actual basin in a semi-arid/semi-humid region(the Rizhao Reservoir Basin)were used to verify the method.Results showed that after correction,the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients for flood simulation in the humid-region ideal model and the semi-arid/semi-humid actual basin were improved significantly from 0.906 to 0.994 and from 0.573 to 0.809,respectively,indicating that the proportional coefficient system response error correction method has a remarkable correction effect and strong adaptability across diverse climatic zones.

关 键 词：洪水预报 系统微分响应 误差修正 比例系数 长诏水库流域 日照水库流域 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]