基于复杂网络的洪涝灾害链风险评估  

Risk assessment of flood disaster chain based on complex network

作　　者：高玉琴[1] 徐诺 汪键 王丽君 刘彤 GAO Yuqin;XU Nuo;WANG Jian;WANG Lijun;LIU Tong(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2025年第2期115-122,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000104);国家自然科学基金项目(52079039);江苏省水利科技项目(2023009)。

摘　　要：为研究洪涝灾害演化过程对流域居民生活和社会经济的影响,从灾害链和复杂网络视角对洪涝灾害链演化风险开展评估。通过收集洪涝灾害典型案例,结合事件树分析法,搭建了洪涝灾害链演化网络。基于贝叶斯网络和网络传播模型,构建了洪涝灾害链风险评估模型,并应用于秦淮河流域。结果表明:洪涝灾害链综合风险由节点风险累积或叠加构成;秦淮河流域“2016·7”洪涝灾害链综合风险水平在洪涝灾害发生后约103 h达极大值,约173 h达第二峰值,综合风险水平约为原生洪涝风险的7倍;公路事故、供排水事故、生态环境破坏事故、水污染事故为关键节点,洪涝灾害→水土流失灾害→水污染事故→生态环境破坏事故为关键传播边,通过对关键节点加强监测应对,对关键链条进行阻截断链,可有效减灾降损。To study the impact of the evolution process of flood disaster on the resident lives and socio-economic development in the watershed,the evolution risk of flood disaster chain was evaluated from the perspective of disaster chain and complex network.By collecting typical cases of flood disaster and combining event tree analysis,the evolution network of flood disaster chain was constructed.Based on the Bayesian network and network propagation model,a flood disaster chain risk assessment model was built,and a case study was conducted in the Qinhuai River Basin.The results show that the comprehensive risk of flood disaster chain is composed of the accumulation or superposition of node risks.The comprehensive risk level of the“2016·7”flood disaster chain in the Qinhuai River Basin reaches the maximum value about 103 h after the occurrence of the flood disaster and the second peak value about 173 h,which is about 7 times the risk of primary flood disaster.Road accident,water supply and drainage accident,ecological environment damage accident,and water pollution accident are key nodes.Flood disaster→soil erosion disaster→water pollution accident→ecological environment destruction is the key transmission edge.By strengthening monitoring and response to key nodes and intercepting critical chains,effective disaster reduction and damage reduction can be achieved.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 灾害链 复杂网络 事件树分析法 贝叶斯网络 秦淮河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]