中国年洪峰季节性的区域特征  

Regional characteristics of annual flood peak seasonality in China

作　　者：丁晨洋 杨汉波 杨文聪 侯爱中[2] DING Chenyang;YANG Hanbo;YANG Wencong;HOU Aizhong(School of of Civil Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Information Center,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学土木工程学院,北京100084 [2]水利部信息中心,北京100053

出　　处：《水资源保护》2025年第2期142-148,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51979140);国家洪水预报平台关键技术研究及应用项目(SKS-2022136)。

摘　　要：为分析中国各地区易受洪水影响的季节,揭示气候变化对洪水季节性的影响,收集了中国2719个水文站1960—2020年的年最大洪峰数据,采用循环统计方法和聚类分析方法,分析了最大洪峰出现时间的季节规律、空间聚集特征、年际变化规律。结果表明:年最大洪峰发生时间的集中度很高,一般在6—9月,由东南向西北逐渐推迟;根据洪水季节性可以聚类为贵州省和重庆市地区(集群1)、华南地区(集群2)、云南省等地区(集群3)、秦岭淮河以北地区(集群4)4个集群,其中集群2在空间上分布最集中;集群2和集群4的年最大洪峰发生时间分别呈显著推迟和提前趋势,集群1的发生时间基本不变。In order to determine the flood-prone seasons in various regions of China,and reveal the impact of climate change on flood seasonality,the annual maximum flood peak data of 2719 hydrological stations in China from 1960 to 2020 were collected.The seasonal rules,spatial clustering characteristics,and interannual variation rules of the maximum flood peak occurrence time were analyzed by using cyclic statistical method and cluster analysis method.The results show that the occurrence time of the annual maximum flood peak is highly concentrated,generally from June to September,and gradually delayed from southeast to northwest.According to the flood seasonality,four clusters can be grouped into Guizhou Province and Chongqing(cluster 1),South China(cluster 2),Yunnan Province and other regions(cluster 3),and Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River north(Cluster 4),among which cluster 2 has the most concentrated spatial distribution.The occurrence time of the annual maximum flood peak in cluster 2 and cluster 4 shows a significantly delayed and advanced trend,respectively,while the occurrence time of cluster 1 is basically unchanged.

关 键 词：年最大洪峰 洪水季节性 循环统计 聚类分析 区域特征 中国 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]