基于SARIMAX模型的天气对地铁客运量的影响机制研究  

Research on the impact mechanism of weather on metro ridership based on the SARIMAX model

作　　者：刘诺亚 卞立双 范泽敏 王涛 LIU Nuoya;BIAN Lishuang;FAN Zemin;WANG Tao(School of Automation,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学自动化学院,南京210094

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2025年第2期81-88,共8页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(182102310004)。

摘　　要：为深入分析天气因素对城市地铁客运量的影响,针对已有研究缺乏应用统一的分析框架以系统性研究不同城市间天气因素与地铁客运量之间影响机制的问题,结合2023年地铁客运量和天气(降水、气温和风速)数据,建立基于季节性差分自回归移动平均外生变量的一周、工作日和休息日模型,选取中国五个具有不同气候特征且地理位置分布不同的城市——北京、上海、广东深圳、成都和武汉作实证研究,从时间和空间维度分析天气对地铁客运量的影响。研究结果显示:从时间维度方面,不同城市的天气因素对地铁客运量的影响机制存在差异;工作日和休息日降水对地铁客运量均产生负向影响;休息日降水与气温对地铁客运量的影响程度普遍高于工作日。从空间维度方面,相近经纬度的城市表现出一定的影响机制一致性,但每个城市也具有其独特的影响机制。In order to deeply analyse the impact of weather factors on metro ridership,and to address the lack of a unified analytical framework to systematically study the impact of weather factors on metro ridership among different cities.The paper combined metro ridership and weather(precipitation,temperature and wind speed)data in 2023,and established seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressors model for the week,weekdays,and weekends.Five cities with different climatic characteristics and geographical locations in China-Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Chengdu and Wuhan-were selected for the empirical study to analyse the impact of weather on metro ridership in both temporal and spatial dimensions.The results show that:In terms of temporal dimension,there are differences in the impact mechanisms of weather factors on metro ridership in different cities;precipitation on weekdays and weekends negatively affects metro ridership;precipitation and temperature on weekends generally affect metro ridership more than on weekdays.In terms of spatial dimension,cities with similar latitude and longitude show some consistency in the impact mechanism,but each city also has its own unique impact mechanism.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 影响机制 地铁客运量 天气因素 SARIMAX模型 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]