基于多因子回归的骆马湖洪水过程预报  

Flood process forecasting of Luoma Lake based on multi factor regression

作　　者：姚思源 李凯[1] 栾承梅[1] 孙金凤[1] 闻余华 YAO Siyuan;LI Kai;LUAN Chengmei;SUN Jinfeng;WEN Yuhua(Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《江苏水利》2025年第4期48-52,共5页Jiangsu Water Resources

摘　　要：骆马湖直接承接沂河、运河等水系来水,由于流域河道比降大、汇水速度快,且汛期暴雨出现机会多,导致骆马湖洪水涨速快,防洪压力大,因此对其洪水全过程的预报在实际的防洪工作中具有重要意义。通过选择水位、流量、降雨等因子,对近20年的典型洪水采用多因子回归法预报洪水过程,结合残差自回归模型对预报结果进行实时校正,对骆马湖洪水过程进行预报,预报精度为甲级,过程趋势判断正确,洪峰水位预测准确。Luoma Lake directly receives water from Yi River,Canal and other water systems.Due to the steep gradient of river channels in the basin,rapid confluence,and more opportunities for rainstorm in flood season,the flood of Luoma Lake rises rapidly,leading to the great pressure of flood protection.Therefore,the prediction of the whole process of flood is of great significance in the actual flood control work.By selecting factors such as water level,flow rate,and rainfall,the multi factor regression method is used to forecast the flood process of typical floods in the past 20 years.Combined with the residual autoregressive model,the forecast results are corrected in real time to predict the flood process of Luoma Lake.The forecast accuracy reaches Grade A,the trend of the process is correctly judged,and the forecast of the flood peak water level is accurate.

关 键 词：洪水过程预报 骆马湖 沂沭泗流域 回归分析 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]