中国乡村产业振兴治理政策的效应评估——基于政策主体行为视角  

Evaluating the effects of governance policies on rural industrial revitalization in China:From the perspective of policy actors’behaviors

作　　者：向书坚 轩媛媛 郑瑞坤 XIANG Shujian;XUAN Yuanyuan;ZHENG Ruikun(Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018;Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学,浙江杭州310018 [2]湖北工业大学,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《财贸研究》2025年第3期53-70,共18页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“乡村振兴的治理内涵与绩效测度研究”(22&ZD156);国家社会科学基金一般项目“农村相对贫困的发生机制、统计测度与治理研究”(22BTJ042);河南省重点研发与推广专项软科学研究一般项目“河南省乡村振兴治理现代化统计监测系统构建研究”(242400411185)。

摘　　要：首先基于政策主体行为视角剖析乡村产业振兴治理政策对乡村产业高质量发展的作用机制,然后采用情感分析方法测量政策文本的激励、约束和综合强度,通过纵横向拉开档次法测度乡村产业高质量发展指数,最后从动态非线性、多路径与异质性角度评估乡村产业振兴治理政策对乡村产业高质量发展的效应。结果表明:整体来看,乡村产业振兴治理政策的激励和约束效应呈滞后递减规律,而综合政策在滞后期具有较强的协同效应。具体来看,政策激励效应整体上呈倒“U”形变化规律,且激励性政策工具对乡村产业经营主体高质量和乡村产业生产经营环境高质量的促进效应相对明显;而政策约束效应则呈“U”形变化规律,且约束性政策工具对乡村产业经营模式高质量和乡村产业产出效益高质量产生了较强的约束效应。此外,受乡村产业政策感知环境和区域阶段发展环境的差异影响,政策激励、约束和综合效应还具有明显的群体和区域异质性。This study firstly analyzes the mechanism through which rural industrial revitalization governance policies influence the high-quality development of rural industries from the perspective of policy actor behavior.Subsequently,sentiment analysis is employed to measure the incentive,constraint,and comprehensive intensities of policy texts,while the vertical and horizontal scatter degree method is applied to assess the high-quality development index of rural industries.Finally,the effects of these policies on rural industrial high-quality development are evaluated from dynamic nonlinear,multi-path,and heterogeneous perspectives.The results indicate that,overall,the incentive and constraint effects of rural industrial revitalization governance policies follow a lagged diminishing pattern,whereas comprehensive policies exhibit stronger synergistic effects during lag periods.Specifically,the incentive effect of policies generally follows an inverted U-shaped trajectory,with incentive-oriented policy tools demonstrating relatively pronounced promotion effects on high-quality rural industrial operation entities and high-quality rural industrial production environments.In contrast,the constraint effect exhibits a U-shaped trend,with constraint-oriented policy tools imposing stronger regulatory impacts on high-quality rural industrial operation models and high-quality rural industrial output efficiency.Furthermore,due to variations in the perceived policy environment for rural industries and regional developmental stages,the incentive effects,constraint effects,and combined policy impacts display significant group-specific and regional heterogeneity.

关 键 词：乡村产业振兴 治理政策 政策主体行为 高质量发展 政策效应评估 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]