不确定性冲击对居民消费韧性的影响研究  

The Effect of Uncertainty Shock on Household Consumption Resilience

作　　者：乌云 范金 张晓兰[2] WU Yun;FAN Jin;ZHANG Xiaolan(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Department of Economic Forecasting,State Information Center,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2024年第6期1605-1630,共26页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD081)。

摘　　要：不确定性冲击是扩大内需和畅通国内经济循环难以回避的现实问题.本文通过构建中国居民消费市场随机可计算一般均衡模型,从总量和结构角度分别测算了不确定性冲击对居民消费韧性的影响,并从制度角度考察了不同政策组合对提高居民消费韧性的保障机制.研究发现:收入水平是影响居民消费韧性的最主要因素,多风险交互影响对居民消费抗冲击能力的影响大于单因素简单叠加,恢复性冲击对于不同经济指标可能具有反向影响;城乡居民消费韧性在结构上具有显著差异性,供给侧与需求端的恢复性冲击共同影响居民消费市场韧性,其中,供给过剩也会造成经济效益下降;提高居民消费韧性和实现扩大居民消费目标需要综合政府和市场作用,且政策导向需要注重就业问题和实现土地、资本要素在区域间自由流动.本文的边际贡献是采用可计算一般均衡的方法研究居民消费韧性问题,克服了现有研究采用局部均衡分析的局限性;并通过引入随机数的方式,更有效地模拟了不确定性冲击对居民消费韧性的影响,提供了更为可靠的理论支持和政策启示.Exploring the impact of uncertainty on the resilience of Chinese residents' consumption is of great practical significance for expanding domestic demand,smoothing the domestic cycle and economic recovery.By constructing a stochastic computable general equilibrium model of China's domestic demand market,this paper measures the impact of uncertainty shocks on the resilience of household consumption from the perspectives of aggregate and structure,and examines the guarantee mechanism of different policy combinations to expand the resilience of household consumption from the institutional perspective.The results show that income level is the most important factor affecting the resilience of residents' consumption,and the impact of multi-risk cross-infection on residents' consumption resistance is greater than the simple superposition of single factors,and the recovery shock may have a reverse impact on different economic indicators.The resilience of urban and rural residents' consumption is structurally different,and the recovery shocks on the supply side and the demand side jointly affect the resilience of the domestic demand market,among which excess supply will also cause a decline in economic benefits.To improve the resilience of household consumption and achieve the goal of expanding domestic demand,it is necessary to integrate the roles of the government and the market,and the policy guidance needs to focus on employment issues and realize the free flow of land and capital factors between regions.This paper further puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.This paper uses the method of calculable general equilibrium to explore the resilience of household consumption,which breaks through the limitations of local equilibrium in existing studies and comprehensively and systematically measures the resilience of household consumption.By introducing random numbers,the impact of uncertainty shocks on the resilience of household consumption is more effectively simulated,which provides more specific and detailed

关 键 词：居民消费 韧性 随机性 CGE模型 宏观闭合 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]